The Conservative party could be heading for electoral wipeout in the North East according to the latest YouGov polling which suggests no current Tory MPs could retain their seats.

The data, which was published last week (April 3) also reveals that under the current predictions, Labour would win 403 seats nationwide in a supermajority leaving Conservative rivals with just 155 seats.

An interactive map using all of the data, which was collected in March from nearly 19,000 adults across the UK, predicts that the Tory party will also lose seats it gained from Labour in the 2019 general election.

Five years ago, many North East voters backed the Conservative party and turned a previous ‘red wall’ into a Tory stronghold in a bold political change in the region.

In many places, voters ‘turned (their constituencies) blue’ for the first time ever - an example of this would be in Hartlepool.

In 2019, the Conservatives won the following seats from Labour:

  • Darlington
  • Hartlepool
  • North West Durham
  • Stockton South
  • Bishop Auckland
  • Redcar
  • Sedgefield
  • Blyth Valley

This means that Conservatives including Peter Gibson, Jill Mortimer, Paul Howell and Matt Vickers could be ousted by voters.

These seats are predicted to revert back to Labour according to the latest polling, which takes into account boundary changes across the region which will make some constituencies across the region obsolete - including former Prime Minister Tony Blair's Sedgefield seat.

New constituencies for the 2024 general election have also been created, which include: Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor, Blaydon and Consett and Stockton West.

Nationally, prominent Tory figures including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would also be on course to lose their seats.

North of the border, YouGov estimates that Labour will be the largest party in Scotland.

They are projected to win 28 Scottish seats, followed by the SNP with 19.

The Lib Dems and Conservatives would win five each under the modelling.


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The Green Party would continue to hold Brighton Pavilion according to the polling, the seat currently held by Caroline Lucas – who is standing down at the election.

The party is also a close second to Labour in the newly created Bristol Central seat.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru is expected to win a total of four seats, including the proposed Caerfyrddin constituency.