PRIME Minister Boris Johnson and almost all North East Tory MPs would be likely to lose their seats if a General Election was called, extensive polling has revealed.
Forecasts show Labour would be nine seats short of an overall majority with County Durham, Darlington and Teesside constituencies returning to traditional voting patterns, rebuilding the ‘Red Wall’.
The Northern Echo has carried out detailed analysis of data for all of the region's Conservative-held seats from the Electoral Calculus website's ‘poll-of-polls’ .
It reveals a dramatic shift in public opinion and political attitudes from December 2019, when Labour's traditional support in northern heartlands crumbled.
The results from Electoral Calculus, the most accurate pre-poll predictors of the last General Election, suggest there would be a 53 per cent chance of a Labour majority if the country went back to the polls.
Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, speaking exclusively to the Northern Echo about the findings, said: "The 2019 general election sent the Labour Party a message I heard loud and clear.
"People in the North East weren’t happy with what we were offering and my leadership will never forget that.
"That’s why I was in the North East last week to make clear that the Labour Party is under new management."
Sir Keir said: "The problem with the Tories isn’t just the fact that they’re paralysed by the scandals in Downing Street.
"Despite the promises made, the North East isn’t getting the government support it deserves.
"Opportunity isn’t spread equally in our country, but talent and ambition are.
"My contract with the British people will guarantee the security you need, the prosperity you want and the respect you deserve.
"It’s about tackling the Tory cost of living crisis with practical solutions such as our plan to cut energy bills by up to £600.
"It’s about ensuring our young people leave school ready for work and ready for life.
"And it’s about growing the economy across the whole country.
"The Labour government I lead will deliver security, prosperity and respect for families, businesses and pensioners in the North East and across the country.
"I know there is a lot to do and I’m not taking anything for granted.
"That why I will continue to work to earn your trust between now and the next election."
Senior Conservatives Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, who would be expected to retain his North Yorkshire seat, have not responded to requests for comment.
The Northern Echo has compiled the data for each constituency to give readers a detailed breakdown of polling results in their area, which includes local authority wards.
Here are the results:
Bishop Auckland - Dehenna Davison
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland - Simon Clarke
North West Durham - Richard Holden
The predicted results are based on samples of current voter intentions and would be a seismic shift from the outcome of the last General Election.
Then, vast swathes of traditional Labour voters backed Boris Johnson, who came to ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair's former constituency of Sedgefield for a victory tour pledging to repay North East communities for ‘lending’ him their vote with an ambitious ‘levelling up’ agenda.
Analysts cite Mr Johnson’s charisma, a divisive opposition leader in Jeremy Corbyn and weariness over Brexit as the key reasons for widespread support that secured a Tory landslide.
Despite some severe criticism of the Prime Minister’s handing of the Covid pandemic crisis, Mr Johnson’s popularity ratings had remained high but started to wane amid allegations of sleaze and corruption last year that led to the resignation of North Shropshire MP Owen Patterson.
More recently, Mr Johnson has been potentially irreparably damaged politically by the ‘partygate’ scandal surrounding social events held at Downing Street during lockdown and is now subject to an official police inquiry.
Professor Richard Rose, a political scientist and elections expert from Strathclyde University, said: “To prevent Keir Starmer moving into Downing Street, Boris Johnson would face the virtually impossible task of forming a kaleidoscope coalition to compensate for the forecast loss of as many as 129 Conservative MPs if a general election were held today.
“However, even if Liberal Democrat, Scottish National, Plaid Cymru, and Green MPs agreed to hold their noses and go into the division lobby in support of the current prime minister, this would only total 312 MPs, insufficient to prevent a Labour government.
“Boris Johnson has responded to Susan Gray's report by repeating past apologies for his oversights.
“Johnson loyalists are proclaiming that only Johnson can lead the Conservatives to victory in the next general election; evidence for their optimism is an election victory in 2019.
“Current polls show a reversal of Johnson's electoral appeal.
“Conservative hopes of an electoral recovery will be tested at the ballot box in local government elections in May.”
In County Durham, the latest constituency results show Bishop Auckland MP Dehenna Davison has a 32 per cent chance of keeping her seat, while Sedgefield MP Paul Howell chances are 20 per cent and North West Durham MP Richard Holden’s chances are ten per cent.
The study shows Labour has an 83 per cent chance of winning Darlington, leaving sitting MP Peter Gibson a 17 per cent chance of remaining in office.
Mr Gibson said: “The only poll that matters is the one on polling day.
“I was elected in December 2019 to work hard for the people of Darlington and that is what I will continue to do so as long as they want me.”
On Teesside, there is a 60 per cent chance Labour would take Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland from Simon Clarke, an 80 per cent chance of Labour winning Stockton South from Matt Vickers, and an 82 per cent chance they would oust Jacob Young from Redcar.
The most stark result is in Hartlepool, where Jill Mortimer who elected only last year currently has a mere five per cent chance of re-election.
Further north, in the supposedly safe rural Northumberland Tory constituency of Hexham, Guy Opperman stands a 38 per cent chance of losing his seat.
Hexham has never returned a Labour candidate but the results show there is currently a 62 per cent chance.
Just one of the region’s Conservatives, Berwick MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan would survive.
Other than Mr Gibson, no other North East Tory MP thought to be at risk replied to a request for comment on the Electoral Calculus findings.
Electoral Calculus, which has currently predicted the last seven General Election results, was developed by Martin Baxter, a former financial analyst who specialised in mathematical modelling.
The website uses scientific techniques on data about Britain's electoral geography to calculate the uniform national swing, taking into account national polls and trends but excluding local issues.
The polls were carried out in January, with the results released last week.
Speaking to the Northern Echo, Mr Baxter said: “I think the Conservatives right now would not want a General Election for obvious reasons.
“I had previously thought they might have pencilled in the diary for spring next year but if the polls continue they will be getting out their rubber and rubbing that out whether or not they replace Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party.
“These results are based on if there was an election this week, but anything can happen in the future and the British public will make their views known later in an evolving way.
“It has been, overall, a volatile time in politics lately. Johnson and Corbyn was a big extreme of personalities and policies and Covid has been a roller coaster of popularity.
“The polls have been up and down with very large swings so there is a lot uncertainty.
“People are changing their minds and they have got a lot of reasons to think about what they want politically.”
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