TO spend or not to spend. When it comes to Newcastle United this summer, that is the pertinent question.

From the moment Amanda Staveley completed her Saudi Arabia-backed takeover of the Magpies in October 2021, it has felt like a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ the club will start spending the kind of money that is reserved for the super-rich. The early rumours of an immediate move for Neymar were always fanciful, but at some stage, it felt inevitable that Newcastle’s new owners would want to start competing with the likes of Manchester City, Chelsea, Paris St Germain and Real Madrid for the world’s best talent.

It still does, but for all the mounting talk of a significant uptick in investment levels this summer, there are still a series of barriers – some external, some self-imposed – that could well prevent Newcastle from taking their recruitment programme to a completely different level. Interest in Declan Rice and Mason Mount is real, as is the club’s long-standing desire to sign Moussa Diaby and James Maddison, but while the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund might have seemingly endless reserves of money, it will not necessarily be easy to blow the rest of world football out of the water.

Clearly, qualifying for the Champions League would shift the dial somewhat. Making the group stage of this season’s Champions League was worth a minimum of around £20m, with the winners of this year’s tournament set to benefit by around £100m before associated income streams are included, so if Newcastle were to finish in the top four this term, their ability to invest in the playing squad would increase.

Champions League qualification would have a major impact on Financial Fair Play, giving the Magpies considerably more wriggle room in the market this summer, but it would also raise two significant questions. One, could Newcastle guarantee that their Champions League income stream would be a regular source of revenue for the next three or four seasons and not just a one-off? And two, would they want to dismantle their budgetary structure as a result of it anyway?

Qualifying for the Champions League would undoubtedly result in an increased spend this summer. There is an acceptance amongst the St James’ Park hierarchy that any form of European football next season would place huge strains on Eddie Howe’s current squad, and that being competitive in the Champions League would require a significant upgrade on the current starting XI.

There will be spending whatever happens, but even if Newcastle end up in the top four, the club’s latest set of accounts, which were released at the end of last month, make for sobering reading when it comes to assessing the potential ramifications of increased investment.

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Newcastle’s wages-to-turnover ratio is currently running at around 95 per cent, an unsustainable level both in terms of FFP and the stated desire of Staveley and her PIF backers to develop a stable business model that is not unduly reliant on owner-investment.

Piling more money into the wage budget might make sense if Newcastle were to be guaranteed a Champions League-level income stream for the whole of the next decade, but is the club really at that point yet? Manchester City are surely locked in to a top-four spot for the next few years, Arsenal’s young squad should only get stronger, and while Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham have all had their struggles this season, they will fancy their chances of turning things around relatively quickly provided they continue investing at something close to their current rate. However much they spend this summer, Newcastle will have to fight hard to finish in the top four next term.

And even if they were to become Champions League regulars, would dismantling the wage structure at this current juncture make sense? Transfer fees are not really too much of a problem for the Magpies because, if the right players are identified, they can be viewed as a long-term investment. Wages are different, as they effectively represent dead money that goes straight into a player’s pocket, and it is here where the Magpies currently lag a long way behind their top-four rivals.

Newcastle’s current top earners are understood to earn around £120,000-a-week before bonuses. Mount’s representatives are reportedly demanding £250,000-a-week before the England midfielder would even consider leaving Stamford Bridge. Rice, with most of the clubs in the Premier League interested in signing him, will be looking for a similar sum to leave West Ham.

Signing one or two players on wages up to double what anyone else in the squad is earning comes with considerable risks attached. Much of Newcastle’s success under Howe has been built on the strength of a unified and committed dressing room. Would that remain intact if key players knew the person playing alongside them was earning double what they were?

If Newcastle were to sign a Mount or a Rice on £250,000-a-week, you can bet that it wouldn’t take long for the agent of a Bruno Guimaraes or an Alexander Isak to start demanding parity for their own player. Renegotiating contracts would be an impossible task unless the ceiling was raised for everyone, which would have obvious long-term financial implications.

It can be argued that unless Newcastle make that leap, they will never be able to challenge the big boys on a long-term basis. If you’re going to make major changes to the way the club is run, you might as well do it now, when you’re operating from a position of strength.

It is a compelling argument, but there would be huge risks attached. Things have gone remarkably well in the last year-and-a-half – much better, surely, than anyone expected. Is this really the right time to start adopting a completely different model?