AS the old saying from Mark Twain goes: ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’. It rings true for a lot of arguments in football with plenty of agendas at play but it’s hard to argue that there is a correlation when looking the numbers behind a team’s start to the season when Chris Wilder is in charge.
After a summer of promise and optimism for the season ahead, Middlesbrough are yet to light the blue touch paper after a stuttering start has left them sitting in the bottom three of the Championship with ten games gone.
Chris Wilder, a man who was part of a sweeping overhaul within the club, has vowed to arrest their slow start by the time the international break comes to an end when they come up against fellow strugglers Coventry City next weekend.
Boro were billed to be Championship big hitters over the summer with many neutrals expecting Wilder to spearhead a charge up the league table. Their start to the season has caught people out… or has it?
Over the course of his managerial career, Wilder has been bold and brave with his teams. He has also been bold and brave in his decision making with regards to playing squad. No doubt, that means there may well be a period of adjustment which lingers into the campaign.
To that end, do Wilder’s sides traditionally have slow starts to the season? Based on the statistics during his time in charge of Oxford United, Northampton and Sheffield United, that largely seems to be the case.
However, what generally seems to follow is a resurgence within the team that seems them strike a chord and go on a run of form. No one has a crystal ball as to how Boro’s next run of games will pan out but no one within the club is currently doubting that they can’t turn their form around which can gives fans plenty of reason for encouragement.
Here are the stats behind Wilder’s form since 2010…
Oxford United 2010/11 (League Two): First 10 games – 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats.
Following 7 games: 1 win, 0 draws, 6 defeats.
Following 14 games: 9 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats.
Following 14 games: 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats.
Oxford United 2011/12 (League Two): First 13 games – 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats.
Following 13 games: 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats
Following 13 games: 6 wins, 6 draws, 1 defeat
Final seven games: 0 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats
Oxford United 2012/13 (League Two): First 9 games - 3 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats.
Following 17 games: 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats.
Following 20 games: 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats.
Oxford United 2013/14 (League Two): First 7 games – 4 wins, 3 draws, 0 defeats
Left to join Northampton mid-way through season.
Northampton 2014/15 (League Two): First 4 games – 1 one, two draws, one defeat.
Following 7 games: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
Following 12 games: 2 wins, 0 draws, 10 defeats.
Following 13 games: 9 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats.
Northampton 2015/16 (League Two): First 6 games – 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats.
Following 16 games: 11 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats.
Following 24 games (unbeaten): 16 wins, 8 draws, 0 defeats.
Sheffield United 2016/17 (League One): First 4 games – 3 defeats and 1 draw.
Following 15 games (unbeaten): 11 wins, 4 draws, 0 defeats.
Following 9 games: 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats.
Following 17 games: 13 wins, 4 draws, 0 defeats.
Went on to lose just three more games all season. 30 wins in total.
Sheffield United 2017/18 (Championship): First 3 games – 2 defeats and 1 win
Following 14 games: 11 wins and 3 defeats.
Following ten games: 1 win, 4 draws and 5 defeats.
Sheffield United 2018/19 (Championship): 2 defeats from opening 2 games.
Following 10 games: 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat.
Following 11 games: 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats.
Following 23 games: 15 wins, 6 draws and 0 defeats.
Sheffield United 2019/20 (Premier League): First 5 games: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats.
Following 9 games: 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat.
Following 15 games: 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats.
Following 9 games: 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats.
Sheffield United 2020/21 (Premier League): First 17 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 15 defeats.
Following 10 games: 4 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats.
These stats have been collated based on Wilder managing football sides from the very start of the campaign as opposed to joining mid-way through. But harping back to his appointing on Teesside last November, they lost one and drew the other in his first two games in charge.
What followed was a run of form which saw Boro win seven of their next eight games as they hurled themselves into the play-off mix have spent the large part of the season languishing in mid-table.
Of course, there is no metric for measuring varying factors that may well offer much more insight into why these results read the way they do. Injuries, suspensions and lack of business in the transfer window are not measured when it comes to results and Boro have had their fair share of difficulties in the early parts of this season. It may seem quite cruel for the manager’s but any gaffer worth his salt knows that the scoreline is the be all and end all.
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