ITALY against Spain for a place in the final of Euro 2020. There have been plenty of twists and turns in this most unpredictable of tournaments, but tonight’s first semi-final at Wembley is a match that plenty of people saw coming.

It will be the fifth meeting between two of European football’s established powerhouses at the last four European Championships, with the scores currently standing at one win for Spain, one success for Italy, one group-stage draw and one Spanish success via penalties.

The first of those four previous meetings is the most celebrated from a Spanish perspective as it came in the quarter-finals of Euro 2008, the tournament that finally saw Luis Aragones’ team end a 44-year wait for a major trophy. Spain had developed a reputation as chokers, and the stage looked set for another failure as their last-eight game with Italy ended in a goalless draw. However, after Daniele De Rossi and Antonio Di Natale missed from the spot for the Italians, Cesc Fabregas converted Spain’s winning spot-kick. A week later, and Fernando Torres’ goal was enough to see off Germany in the final.

Four years later, and after a 1-1 draw in the opening game of the group stage, Spain and Italy met again in the final of Euro 2012. By now, Spain were European and World champions and unquestionably the best international team in the world. Italy were contemptuously brushed aside, with goals from David Silva, Jordi Alba, Torres and Juan Mata securing a 4-0 win.

By Euro 2016, however, the pendulum had swung. Spain were on the downgrade, Italy were flezing their muscles and when the sides were paired together again in the round of 16, it was the Italians celebrating a 2-0 win thanks to goals from Giorgio Chiellini and Graziano Pelle. That they went on to lose to Germany in the quarter-finals and failed to even qualify for the 2018 World Cup, however, suggests it was not a vintage era for either nation.

All of which brings us to this evening, and a game that will mark a new dawn for whoever makes it through to the final. Italy have regrouped under Roberto Mancini since their World Cup qualifying disaster, and, along with England, can claim to have been the most complete side at these Euros. Their quarter-final victory over Belgium showcased both attacking ability and defensive control, and while they will miss the injured Leonardo Spinazzola, whose performances at left-back have made him one of the players of the tournament, Mancini has a host of attractive attacking options to supplement his characteristically solid defence.

“First and foremost, we go to Wembley safe in the knowledge that we are a team that can still offer a lot in this tournament,” said the former Manchester City boss. “We know that we will be up against top-class opposition once again because Spain, like Belgium, are very tricky opponents. But we are ready.”

Spain have had a more chaotic passage to the last four, struggling for goals in their opening two group games, cutting loose against Slovakia, riding a rollercoaster against Croatia and squeezing through on penalties against Switzerland, and having encouraged his players to adopt an expansive approach throughout his reign, Luis Enrique is not about to tighten the shackles now.

“I always said we were one of the eight candidates to win the European Championship,” said Enrique, whose steadfast support for an inconsistent Alvaro Morata has been a key feature of Spain’s campaign. “Now, we are among the four best. It would be ridiculous to be in the semi-finals and not think about taking one step more. This is the objective.”