Cheltenham Festival: A race-by-race guide

TUESDAY

In the words of legendary baseball star Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu – all over again”. The opening day of last year’s Cheltenham Festival was dominated by talk of a potential Willie Mullins four-timer, with the plot only being foiled by Annie Power’s dramatic fall at the last in the Mares’ Hurdle. Twelve months on, and Ireland’s champion trainer is set to dominate again.

For Vautour and Douvan, the last two winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30) that opens the Festival, read Min, the latest superstar novice to emerge from Mullins’ Closutton base.

Having been touted as the next big thing before he even tackled a hurdle in public, Min has lived up to the hype with two facile wins in Ireland. The form doesn’t amount to much, but he was visually impressive on both occasions and is a worthy 7-4 favourite. He might well win, but if you’re backing him at that price, you’re taking a lot on trust.

Nicky Henderson’s Altior is a worthy rival – his Boxing Day win at Kempton is easily the best form in the race – and at 4-1, I’d probably rather be on his side. Supasundae, who was sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper, is an interesting outsider at 16-1.

The bookmakers will be out to take on Min, but they’re running scared of Douvan, who is many people’s idea of the banker of the Festival in the Arkle (2.10). At 2-5, he’s not really a betting proposition, so sit back and watch one of racing’s superstars do what he does best. Sizing John (8-1) is a decent shout to chase him home.

The first handicap of the week – the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (2.50) – looks predictably tricky, and as ever, plans won’t be finalised until a day or so before the race. Form at previous Festivals tends to be significant though, and with that in mind, Holywell (8-1) has to go close. Jonjo O’Neill’s chaser was fourth in last year’s Gold Cup, and while he hasn’t been at his best so far this season, a return to his preferred spring ground should help revitalise him.

The Champion Hurdle (3.30) lost much of its lustre when reigning champion Faugheen was forced to withdraw because of injury, but Annie Power (2-1) has stepped into the breach to act as the third leg of the Mullins accumulator.

She’s always been one of her trainer’s favourites, but at one stage in the autumn she wasn’t even guaranteed to run at the Festival at all because of injury concerns. Her first target was the Mares’ Hurdle, then the World Hurdle was touted as a possibility, now she finds herself in the Champion. Her class is undeniable, and her 7lb mares’ allowance will help. But she’s never won at Cheltenham and has no meaningful form at all over two miles. At the prices, she has to be opposed.

The problem is who to side with instead. Nichols Canyon beat Faugheen earlier this season, but is a plodder rather than a genuine star. Identity Thief has improved markedly this year, and won the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in decent style, but shouldn’t be good enough either.

The New One has finished third and fifth in the last two Champion Hurdles, but doesn’t look to be getting any better, so by process of elimination, we’re left with My Tent Or Yours (8-1). Henderson’s nine-year-old hasn’t been seen on the track for nearly two years because of a serious leg injury, so a lot has to be taken on trust. If he’s back to anything approaching his best though, he should go close.

Annie Power’s switch means Mullins runs Vroum Vroum Mag (11-10) in the Mares’ Hurdle (4.10), and she looks difficult to oppose. Polly Peachum (5-1) is a decent yardstick, but the race lacks depth.

The National Hunt Chase (4.50) looks notably strong, however, with a mixture of dour stayers and more versatile performers who will be desperate for some good ground. Colin Tizzard’s Native River (9-1) is an interesting youngster who makes each-way appeal.

The opening day ends with the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (5.30), and while Ballyalton (14-1) hasn’t always convinced since switching to fences, he’s another horse who should welcome the switch to spring ground.

WEDNESDAY

The Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (1.30) opens day two, and Yanworth (5-4) has been a warm order from the moment he demolished a top-class field in a Grade Two at Cheltenham in January.

The Alan King-trained six-year-old clearly appreciated the step up to two-and-a-half miles, and for all that the Neptune is always a hot race, he looks to have rock-solid credentials.

He’s by far the likeliest winner, although Bellshill (7-1) will push him all the way if he can bounce back from a dreadful run in his last outing at Leopardstown. At a price, Henderson’s O O Seven (16-1) is capable of running into a place.

The RSA Chase (2.10) has been touted as a two-horse race between former World Hurdle winner More Of That (2-1) and the much-improved No More Heroes (9-4). It looks like turning out that way, and I’d just plump for the latter, largely on the evidence of his thumping Leopardstown win in December.

Seeyouatmidnight (12-1), trained in the Scottish borders by Sandy Thomson, is one of the few Northern horses with a genuine chance of success, but he’s an out-and-out stayer and will probably need the ground to come up soft to be competitive.

The Coral Cup (2.50), a cavalry charge of more than 20 hurdlers, is always one of the toughest races to call all week, and the make-up of the market could change markedly once the entries are confirmed. For now, I’d be interested in Clondaw Warrior (20-1) and Ibis Du Rheu (25-1) at fancy prices.

If Douvan is set to be Tuesday’s star, then Un De Sceaux (8-11) should light up Wednesday’s action in the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30).

Last year’s Arkle winner is prone to the odd jumping error, and has fallen in two of his seven outings over fences. Provided he stands up, he’ll win, and with Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy on a downward curve, he could finish clear by a distance. Either way, it’ll be a thrill to watch. Dodging Bullets (12-1) won a weak renewal last year, but could well chase Un De Sceaux home.

The Cross-Country Chase (4.10) could be one of the most emotional races at the Festival if Balthazar King (9-2) wins for a third time.

Philip Hobbs’ chaser almost lost his life when he fell in last year’s Grand National, but he has been nursed back to health and is reportedly impressing in training. Leaving his back story aside for a moment, he remains the best horse in the race, and even the most hard-headed of analyses would make him an interesting bet.

The Festival preview circuit has been buzzing with tips for Diego Du Charmil (6-1) in the Fred Winter Hurdle (4.50), with Paul Nicholls supposedly making the juvenile his best bet of the meeting. He’s certainly well handicapped, but his price has collapsed and I’d rather be on John Ferguson’s Jaleo (14-1) each way.

Day two ends with the Champion Bumper (5.30), with the market currently headed by Augusta Kate (6-1), a Mullins-trained five-year-old part owned by Alan Shearer and Ant and Dec. She’s looked superb in her two outings to date, but it’s often worth choosing a couple at a price given the way in which bumper horses can improve markedly from one run to the next. I’ll flag up Couer Blimey (10-1), who beat joint favourite Ballyandy last time out, and First Figaro (16-1) as horses of interest.

THURSDAY

Day three begins with the JLT Novices’ Chase (1.30), and while a number of the leading protagonists in the market still have multiple entries, the make-up of the race is beginning to become clearer.

Garde La Victoire (7-2) is set to swerve Douvan in the Arkle and line up in the longer race, but I’m not sure the JLT will suit him. Bristol De Mai (7-2) was an impressive winner of the Scilly Isles Chase and looks certain to make the frame, but the value in the market might well lie with Outlander (9-2), who disappointed in last year’s Neptune, but who has certainly looked the part as a chaser. Zabana (12-1) makes each-way appeal at longer odds.

The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (2.10) is always something of a lottery, and as ever, there’s a host of horses who could go close. It’s worth having a couple against the field, so I’ll go with Our Kaempfer (12-1) and Broxbourne (16-1) who have threatened to win this type of race in the past.

The Ryanair Chase (2.50) has fallen apart somewhat, with a number of potential entrants set to run in the Gold Cup instead. Road To Riches (11-4) was third in last year’s Gold Cup, but is set to step back in distance to run in the Ryanair, partly because his owner, Michael O’Leary, also owns the airline company that sponsors the race.

He doesn’t look a two-and-a-half miler to me, so I’ll be on Al Ferof (6-1), who has been laid out by his trainer, Dan Skelton, specifically for this race. If Josses Hill (8-1) could get his jumping together, he’d be a big threat, but on all available evidence, that remains a big ‘if’.

The World Hurdle (3.30) is dominated by one of the best-backed horses of the week in the shape of Thistlecrack (6-5), and the Tizzard-trained stayer has been in imperious form all season, beating most of the rivals he’s likely to face on Thursday.

There has to be a slight doubt about how he’ll handle better ground, but it’s still hard to see him being beaten given his endless reserves of stamina and foot-perfect jumping.

Alpha Des Obeaux (6-1) has landed some notable scalps in Ireland, while Saphir De Rheu (10-1) is back over hurdles after Nicholls finally gave up on trying to turn him into a chaser. Cole Harden (8-1) won a weak renewal of the race 12 months ago, and might be the best bet to chase home Thistlecrack.

The Brown Advisory Plate (4.10) features a number of horses who have done well at Cheltenham in the past, and while Taquin De Seuil (10-1) and Irish Cavalier (12-1) have both endured up-and-down seasons, they possess the class needed to win a competitive renewal.

The Dawn Run Novices’ Hurdle (4.50) is a new race on this year’s schedule, and features an odds-on favourite in the Mullins-trained Limini (4-5). Boasting an impeccable flat pedigree, Limini has cruised through her races to date, but her jumping has been all over the place.

She’s got away with that so far, but might not be as lucky in the hurly-burly of a big field at Cheltenham. Brian Ellison’s Smart Talk (8-1) might lack Limini’s breeding, but she’s a really smart mare and looks the best chance of a Yorkshire-trained winner all week.

The Kim Muir Handicap Chase (5.30) tends to be a gruelling encounter, even if the ground is good, and Cause of Causes (6-1) is sure to have his supporters on the back of his victory in last year’s National Hunt Chase. His poor form so far this season would have to be a concern though.

Noble Endeavor (14-1) is just a seven-year-old, and looks open to improvement under Gordon Elliott, and his winter form in Ireland has to give him an each-way chance.

FRIDAY

The Triumph Hurdle (1.30) has been the most volatile of the ante-post markets, with all of the leading protagonists suffering setbacks on their route to the Festival.

Joseph O’Brien’s Ivanovich Gorbatov (6-1) was all the rage for most of the winter, only to run no kind of a race at Leopardstown last time out. He remains joint-favourite, but can’t be trusted on the evidence of his last performance.

The same is true of the Alan King-trained Gibralfaro (25-1), who was vying for favouritism before he flopped badly at Kempton in a race that was won by Zubayr (6-1). That performance has made Zubayr joint-favourite for the Triumph, but the word is that Nicholls didn’t even expect him to win the Kempton race, so he’s shortened dramatically on the back of a race that probably dropped into his lap.

King’s Sceau Royal (7-1) look the kind of tough, battle-hardened performer that tends to go well in the Triumph, and is worth backing along with Footpad (12-1), who hasn’t had anything like the credit he deserves for his victory in the race that saw Ivanovich Gorbatov found wanting.

The Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle (2.10) is typically hard to call, but Starchitect (12-1) ran a superb race after a lengthy absence when he was second in the Betfair Hurdle, and he should go close if he gets in at the bottom of the weights. At much bigger odds, Tim Easterby’s Hawk High (33-1) could be transformed as he returns to his preferred good ground.

The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (2.50) is generally an attritional affair, and while the dry forecast should mean the ground is really hardening up come Friday, stamina will still be essential.

Barters Hill (11-4) has that attribute in spades, and while Ben Pauling’s stable star would probably prefer some more cut in the ground, it’ll take a good horse to beat him. If there is such a horse in the field, it could well be Gangster (7-1), who has reportedly been matching some of Mullins’ stable stars stride-for-stride on the gallops.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30) is the feature race of the Festival, and this year’s is a vintage renewal. Don Cossack (7-2), Djakadam (5-1), Vautour (5-1), Don Poli (11-2) and Cue Card (11-2) all have their admirers, and any of the quintet would be a deserved short-priced favourite in just about any other year.

Don Cossack trounced a top-class field to win the Melling Chase at Aintree last spring, and plenty of people think he would have won the King George had he not hit the ground two out. I’m not sure it would have been that clear cut though, with the jumping error perhaps hinting at a frailty under pressure.

Djakadam also fell last time out, and while he was second in last year’s Gold Cup, his lengthening list of narrow misses is a worry. Vautour is the classiest horse in the race, but he was struggling to get home in the King George and even with the ground in his favour, his lack of stamina could well prove terminal to his chances once again.

All of which leaves us with Don Poli and Cue Card. The former is a dour stayer who won the RSA at last year’s Festival. You have to be able to stay to win the Gold Cup, but there is a chance Don Poli will be outpaced in the early stages.

Cue Card was a doubtful stayer earlier in his career, but his storming finish in the King George allayed those worries, and after trouncing Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase, he’s the horse to be on.

All eyes will be one horse in the Foxhunter Chase (4.10), with Victoria Pendleton now confirmed to be riding Pacha du Polder (14-1). Her switch from cycling has become something of a circus, but she still deserves huge credit for taking on the challenge of riding on one of toughest stages of all. It is to be hoped she gets round safely.

A victory is surely too much to ask, and while Mendip Express (7-1) should run well, it’s hard to see past favourite On The Fringe (11-4), who was a cosy winner of last year’s race.

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle (4.40) has tended to be a nightmare for punters, so it might be best to look beyond Squouateur (6-1), even though Gordon Elliott’s hurdler has been strongly supported in the last few days. The same trainer is responsible for Jetstream Jack (14-1), and he shouldn’t be twice the price of his stable mate.

The final race of the week is the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (5.30), and if you’re chasing your losses at this stage, you’re going to need some luck on your side. The Game Changer (12-1) will shorten if he’s a confirmed runner, and should go close if he lines up, while Savello (16-1) boasts some decent snatches of form and has run well at Cheltenham in the past.