In the hands of the weather gods

DENNIS Killan has never known a year like it. Mr Killan, who runs a pick-yourown- fruit farm in South Devon, normally expects one dry weekend at least in June. Instead, there was barely a dry day last month.

"It has affected income drastically," he says.

"When the strawberries are there to be picked, you cannot hang onto them. But the weather means people do not want to come to pick out of doors.

We've never known a year like this one for 16 years."

Following on from last summer's drought-like conditions, with scenes reminiscent of the scorching summer of 1976, today's farmer has far soggier issues on his mind. According to forecasters MeteoGroup UK, last month was the wettest June on record since 1860, with the highest rainfall for June - 283mm - seen in Wilsden, West Yorkshire, compared with an average of about 70mm for the month.

Elsewhere, in parts of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, South Devon etc, there has been devastating flash flooding, with many crops still deluged by water. Yesterday, the Archbishop of York, Dr John Sentamu, added his support to an appeal fund for farmers hit by the floods.

"The full personal and financial impact of the floods will not be known for some time. However the immediate impact of the floods has already caused significant misery for many farmers," he said.

A picture of the cost to farmers, however, is emerging. Potato crops are facing huge problems because of the heavy downpours and the fungal disease, blight - which causes plants to rot and eventually die - is spreading because farmers are unable to get on their waterlogged land to spray their crops to protect them. The Processed Vegetable Growers Association has also estimated that 25 per cent of this summer's frozen pea harvest could be lost - but the figure could be much higher.

Rachael Gillbanks, North-Eastern press officer with the National Farmers' Union, says: "I was talking to someone from East Yorkshire today who estimated they could end up losing between 40 to 50 per cent of their pea harvest.

"With arable crops, we've seen those iconic photographs of people rowing across fields, but while it's not that bad further north, we're still seeing wheat knocked over. Where we have crops of milling wheat (for public consumption), we may see more wheat going to feed the meat market."

But the weather has not only affected crops. Livestock farmers have had to appeal to their fellow farmers with dry land to accommodate some of their animals from waterlogged fields.

"The dairy sector is usually out enjoying lush pasture at this time of year, but they're having to bring the cows in at night and give them supplementary feed," says Ms Gillbanks.

"It's hard to imagine a sector of farming that hasn't been affected."

What financial cost farmers will face is still difficult to estimate.

"Certainly, if they've had flooded crops or if crops have been standing in water for more than 12 hours, then they're will be largely gone," she says.

"You're unable to insure for field crops grown out in the open and, in addition to that, you've got a lot of the guys tied into set contracts so they're not even able to increase the set price to recoup some of the losses.

"The supermarkets say they want to support British agriculture but there's no doubt that farmgate prices in many sectors are very low and certainly with some sectors, such as milk and lamb, there's concern as to how long farmers can continue to sustain that situation."

According to Tony Simpson, commercial manager of Piercebridge- based Farmway, the biggest agricultural cooperative in the North, it is not just British farmers facing problems.

"The crops in Europe have been suffering, from drought to now being under water," he says.

"We're in a world market. Oil seed rape prices have risen considerably and grain prices, due to demand and world weather, have gone up £20 to £25 per tonne over the past four or five months.

"Currently, grain prices are looking well for the Northern farmer, but if yields are affected, it will have a knock-on effect."

But what will the weather mean to the prices shoppers pay for their fruit and vegetables? The National Farmers' Union has already warned that food prices will have to go up as supplies fall, with recent floods damaging acres of broccoli, cabbage, cauliflowers, onions and carrots.

With cod stocks low and the pea and potato harvests drastically affected, the price of fish and chips is being pushed up - even though the true picture of the potato harvest is not expected to emerge until the New Year.

"We don't really know the exact impact in terms of cash value at the moment," says Patrick Stephenson, a North Yorkshire-based independent agronomist and former chairman of the Association of Independent Crop Consultants. "Some of the significant issues will be with potatoes, which will have a knock-on effect on crisps and chips. It's a long time before potatoes are harvested in the main crop and, because of the conditions, they could be rotting. It may be the New Year before the true magnitude comes to light.

"For the soft fruit people, it's been an utter disaster.

I've been told by two farmers in York and Scarborough that they've only had a third of their normal crop. For the cereal people, we might be seeing a ten to 15 per cent loss in yield in the worst affected areas, but if it carries on raining, that figure will grow."

T HEREIN lies the key to potential recovery or otherwise, for the picture could become a lot worse if the rain continues. "If it stopped raining now and the sun shone, we will have played our get out of jail free' card and we'll end up with a harvest which may be reasonable," says Mr Stephenson.

"But if we continue to get the rain, then the crops that have fallen will lose all quality. We're still very much in the hands of the weather gods."

And, according to Stephen Davenport, senior meteorologist with Meteogroup UK, the weather gods have yet to give signs of a sustained dry period. The term he prefers is "unsettled".

"Apart from the showers around for the next couple of days, we're looking at a widespread band of rain coming through on Thursday with heavyish rain in Northern England on Friday and Saturday.

On Sunday, most of the country could be affected by thunderstorms coming up from the South. It might get pretty wet in the North-East because the wind will be picking up moisture from the North Sea."

As for the rest of summer, it is anyone's guess, and it's one prediction Mr Davenport would rather not make he says. The farmers, meanwhile, will be praying for a sunny outcome.