‘TRULY awful”.

“Disaster”.

This was not a critique of Jonathan Ross’ bizarre beard. Instead, these emotive words were used to describe the release of a surprisingly low fourth quarter GDP figure in the UK last week.

It was the reaction of well read financial commentators and strategists to this number, who understand how their pronouncements can affect markets, and thus would not use such hyperbole lightly.

And so it begs the question, is the dreaded double dip recession now inevitable?

Now, I am not going to pretend that I wasn’t a little taken aback at how far the figure was below most people’s expectations. But upon reflection, I’m more surprised that I was surprised at all.

We are in a tough place, economically. Very low interest rates have been maintained so as not to stifle the recovery.

But inflation is rising, which would usually prompt the Bank of England to raise rates and choke off the rise, something which the vast majority of the committee is reluctant to do, for fear of nipping recovery in the bud.

Added to all of this, we still don’t know what the full effects of the spending cuts will be. It has been mooted that these alone will be enough to tip us back into recession.

So, it should come as no shock that figures can be so far removed from what most of us predict, in unprecedented, nervy, economic times.

But consider this. The figure covered a threemonth period, a snapshot in other words.

It was the first negative reading in the past five, and GDP for last year was still positive overall.

Would your car become a bad car after one poor MoT, despite four perfect ones previously?

Not necessarily. Very simplistic I know, but the sentiments are obvious, that one poor figure does not a recession make.

During the recession created by the credit crunch, the worst quarterly contraction was -2.4 per cent, far worse than the -0.5 per cent recorded in the run up to Christmas, a time when people mainly spent extra money on two things – Christmas presents, and deicer.

Fingers have pointed at the construction slowdown as a catalyst.

These must be people who have not tried to build a house in ten inches of snow.

I’m sure there are many. In my opinion, it is not symptomatic of weakness in the sector.

For many sectors of the economy, the run-up to Christmas is their slowest time. Multiply this by adverse weather and part of a workforce which is unable to get in to do their job, and this results in a slowdown.

And yet I fully appreciate that what has shocked people is not the fact that productivity fell, but the magnitude by which it missed most estimates.

I would counter this by saying that a lot of estimates will have been made long before the poor weather came. Many analysts are reluctant to change their view once they’ve put it out there.

While I give healthy respect to the forces at work that could potentially throw us off track, I just can’t see the sense in panicking at the drop of a hat.

Personally, I do not see one negative number as the harbinger of a double dip, and it should come as less of a surprise to us all, if the next move is up.

􀁧 Nick Williams is an investment manager in the Teesside office of Brewin Dolphin, and can be contacted on 0845-213-1340. All prices quoted in the article are from public sources. The views expressed are not necessarily held throughout the Brewin Dolphin Group. You should bear in mind that no investment is suitable for all circumstances and it is important to seek expert advice if in any doubt. Brewin Dolphin Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchange, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.