RURAL parts of the region could experience a surge in ethnic diversity in the decades to come, an academic study suggests.

Research by scientists at Leeds University forecasts that, by 2051, up to 30 per cent of North Yorkshire’s population could be of non-white British descent.

The predictions are based on potential changes to the population as ethnic minority families become more affluent and move from towns to the countryside.

If accurate, the predictions will represent a big shift for North Yorkshire, which had a white-British population of almost 97 per cent at the 2001 census.

The figures have been hailed by community workers as a step towards creating a “richer, more diverse” North Yorkshire.

Nasr Emam, a community cohesion officer in Scarborough, said: “This will make North Yorkshire much stronger and much greater in terms of knowledge and skills.

“I work with local people and they appreciate the contribution of the ethnic minorities that live here. It is so important to mix with people from different cultures.”

Professor Philip Rees, who helped compile the report, stressed the unreliability of long-term predictions.

He described the eventual movement of affluent minorities into the countryside as “a natural continuation” of current trends.

He said: “The ethnic makeup of the UK population is evolving significantly.

“Groups outside the white British majority are increasing in size and share, not just in the areas of initial migration, but throughout the country.

“At a regional level, ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived inner city areas to more affluent areas, which echoes the way that white groups have migrated in the past.”

The projections have received the backing of Mr Emam, a North Yorkshire County Council employee, who believes such changes are already taking place.