With the NHS job cuts and the cash for peerages row still rumbling, can Tony Blair last much longer as Labour leader? Parliamentary Correspondent Rob Merrick believes so - for now.

THE biggest row raging at the moment is whether the troubled NHS is facing a terminal crisis, or has simply caught a cold from which it can quickly recover.

It is fair to say that opinion is similarly divided on the condition of Tony Blair, as the ninth anniversary approaches next week of the Prime Minister entering Downing Street on a wave of euphoria.

Job cuts in the health service, the 'loans for peerages' row reviving memories of Tory sleaze and looming local election meltdown in London - it is hard to know where to start on Mr Blair's troubles.

The revelation that 1,023 foreign prisoners - including three murderers and nine rapists - have walked free instead of being deported is inevitably seen as fresh proof of a government losing its grip.

Shivers will have run down spines in Downing Street yesterday when a poll for a national newspaper found Labour support had dipped to just 32 per cent - the lowest since the party's drubbing at the 1987 general election.

That's so long ago that Mr Blair was still a member of Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) and was busy protesting against the privatisation of gas and water as Labour's industry spokesman.

One prediction is that a 32 per cent score in next week's local elections could cost Labour control of up to 15 councils in London - its weakest battleground - and up to 300 council seats nationwide.

Labour rebels - and, perhaps, nervous backbenchers sitting on small majorities - will seize on such a result as proof that the Prime Minister must be forced out of Number 10 this year.

Even aides who like to keep count of all the 'Blair's worst week' headlines down the years must be wondering if it is different this time.

The question is whether a battered Mr Blair is capable of regaining the initiative for Labour or if that can only happen when he packs up his guitar and carries it out of Downing Street for good.

There seems little doubt that Labour has been badly hurt by the allegations of sleaze, with the extraordinary scenario of a police investigation creeping closer to the door of Number 10.

Most of Westminster was quick to laugh off the announcement of a Scotland Yard probe into claims that honours were being sold as simply a stunt by the Scottish National Party. But when Des Smith, the headteacher and ex-government advisor, was arrested after apparently suggesting city academy sponsors could receive gongs, events took a more serious turn.

Mr Blair's critics would suggest he still does not realise how bad it looks. On Monday, he told his monthly press conference that the donors deserved recognition for their generosity to his pet scheme.

"Contributing to the education of disadvantaged kids in the inner cities is about as good a contribution to society as I can think of," the Prime Minister insisted.

Even more serious are the redundancies and rising deficits in the NHS, which must bamboozle a public which has seen its budget balloon from £32bn in 1997 to more than £90bn this year.

Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt's boast that the NHS had enjoyed "its best year ever" may have been strictly true - with waiting times and death rates down - but it was appalling politics. Consequently, Ms Hewitt was heckled when she told the Unison conference in Gateshead that, within two years, waiting lists would be effectively abolished.

In 1997, such an achievement would have seemed unthinkable. Now, it provokes a shrug at best and derision from health workers fearing for their jobs.

The department of health issued its annual survey this week that revealed the NHS has gained 34,301 staff in 12 months, including an extra 5,309 doctors and 6,646 more nurses. It barely warranted a mention when the headlines were made by hospital trusts shedding 7,000 jobs within weeks in a desperate bid to balance their books.

At his press conference, the Prime Minister made repeated pleas for "balanced reporting" of his health service reforms and their impact by the assembled media pack.

It was the first sign of the sort of frustration that led to John Major, in the last years of his premiership, ringing newspaper editors personally to berate them for their vicious attacks.

But the big difference from the dying days of Mr Major is that, back in the mid-90s, the polls had Labour streets ahead and heading for its election landslide.

In contrast, yesterday's poll that put Labour on just 32 per cent had David Cameron's Conservatives only two points ahead, well within the margin of error. In fact, the findings made equally disturbing reading for the Tories, because it revealed Mr Blair's support hemorrhaging, not to Mr Cameron, but to the Liberal Democrats.

Astonishingly, a Lib Dem party mired in scandal at the start of its own leadership election just two months ago appeared to have bounced back, rising three points to 24 per cent.

Mr Cameron has made the environment the centrepiece of an attempt to win back centreground voters, yet the poll put the Lib Dems still way ahead on the issue.

The new Tory leader has basked in the near-adulation of the media since taking over in December, but it appears to be having next to no impact on the voters.

While that remains the case, it will be much easier for Mr Blair to shrug off his popularity dip as a "rogue poll" and fight off the growing band of malcontents in his own party. The message sent out on his recent trip to Australia could not have been clearer; he intends to serve something close to a "full term" - which means staying on until 2008 at least.

Far from running out of steam, Mr Blair is relishing the many fresh challenges he sees ahead - pensions, nuclear power stations and injecting private-sector energy into schools and hospitals.

Senior Labour figures, who hope the Prime Minister will use his annual conference speech in the autumn to signal an earlier departure, appear to be whistling in the wind. That only leaves the possibility of a coup similar to the one that removed Margaret Thatcher, but Labour rebels must clear a far higher hurdle to remove their leader.

A challenge would require the open support of 20 per cent of the parliamentary party - at least 70 MPs - and there is no sign of that level of backing for bringing down Mr Blair.

Of course, it would happen very quickly if Gordon Brown, Mr Blair's almost certain successor, was to throw his weight behind a challenge, but the cautious Chancellor will not risk all on such a gamble.

Instead, the most likely leadership challenger - ex-environment minister Michael Meacher - has insisted he would only stand if the Prime Minister had already quit.

The truth for Labour supporters desperate to be rid of Tony Blair is that he can stay as long as he likes - or at least until things get very much worse than they are today.