FOOT-AND-MOUTH could become a £1bn crisis for the North-East economy, according to a financial expert.

Analysis carried out by David Harvey, professor of agricultural economics at Newcastle University, has calculated that, nationally, the country's final bill as a result of the epidemic could reach £10bn.

Tourism and recreation will be the hardest hit, he said, with an estimated loss of £700m in the region.

North-East farmers are facing a deficit of £60m, including compensation payments, while other industries, from hauliers to abattoirs and agricultural suppliers to butchers, will lose an estimated £240m.

Research carried out by the Northumbria Tourist Board suggested that visitors to attractions were down by 71 per cent, 45 per cent of accommodation bookings were being cancelled and 18 per cent of rural tourism business had laid off staff since the start of the crisis.

Chief executive Peter Sloyan said Easter had shown some improvement, but bed and breakfasts and farmhouse cottages were still suffering badly.

He said: "People are not staying, because there is the perception there is nothing to do.

"Many of these businesses have not received a single penny in revenue since March 1, and they are the ones that are really suffering."

He said the only solution was to open up some paths, in consultation with farmers, to encourage people back to the countryside.

He said: "Our feeling is, in the next four weeks we have got to open up footpaths and cycle ways and riverbanks if we are going to succeed in getting people into rural areas.

"People know pubs and attractions are available, but to say the walks are closed is putting people off."

Chris Fylan, northern area manager for the Road Haulage Association, said the crisis would have serious long-term implications for the industry.

Restrictions on livestock movement meant drivers specialising in carrying animals had moved into other areas and the extensive culling meant next year's work had gone.

If the crisis continues until July, the cost of the epidemic to the British economy could top £40bn nationally, the Institute of Directors said yesterday