HEALTH experts are predicting that next year's winter beds crisis could be the worst ever, after a huge surge in demand.

Despite months of planning, the numbers of sick patients being admitted by County Durham hospitals over last winter placed tremendous strains on the system.

With many elderly patients occupying hospital beds because there was nowhere for them to go, health bosses were forced to cancel large numbers of planned operations.

In a report presented to County Durham and Darlington Health Authority, emergency planning manager Ann Doonan said: "The increased admission rates to acute services, and the resultant delays in transfer of care are no longer sustainable, and need to be addressed by the formulation of pre-admission strategies."

While praising the efforts of health workers who battled to cope with record numbers of emergency medical admissions, she said there needed to be a radical overview of the way services are planned and delivered, to avoid serious problems next winter.

"The increases in service pressures have been well managed by all agencies and this deserves acknowledgement. There is, however, a general consensus that if demand continues to increase next winter will prove even more problematic," she said.

Despite the absence of a major flu outbreak the demand for services is going up year on year, and between January and March 2001 there was a 10.6 per cent increase in medical admissions at the North Durham and South Durham trusts.

This led to 330 scheduled operations being cancelled in County Durham compared with 215 in the previous winter.

Lack of social services funding was blamed for some of the "bed-blocking" when elderly patients cannot be discharged because care home places are unavailable.

Sometimes bed-blocking occurs because favoured homes are full.

To get around this problem health and social services bosses are considering a scheme pioneered in Leeds, which involves asking elderly patients awaiting discharge to rank three homes in order of preference on the understanding that they will be transferred to their first choice home as soon as possible.

Nigel Porter, deputy director of Durham County Council Social Services, confirmed that the Leeds scheme was being considered.

Val Bryden, chief officer of South Durham Community Health Council, warned that the Leeds approach could simply create another waiting list.