FOOT-AND-MOUTH would have been stopped in its tracks if proposed changes to farm practices had been in place at the start of the outbreak, according to expert analysis.

The revelation means the slaughter of nearly four million animals, culled to try to contain the epidemic, could have been avoided.

And the disease would almost certainly have been confined to a small area around the Northumberland farm where it is thought to have originated.

Today marks six months since the outbreak was first discovered, at an Essex abattoir.

Meanwhile, Agriculture Minister Lord Whitty has warned that subsidies for food production would be phased out within a decade.

In future, support for farming will be directed at encouraging stewardship of the environment and animal welfare.

The latest figures show almost 2,000 confirmed cases of foot-and-mouth, with livestock from more than 9,000 farms - almost 3.8m animals - culled.

The cost of the epidemic is running into billions of pounds in compensation and lost tourism revenue.

Work by analysts at Newcastle University's Centre for Life Science and Modelling suggests the disaster could easily have been avoided.

Researchers devised a computer programme to mimic the spread of the disease under different conditions.

Preliminary findings show one measure alone would have had a dramatic impact.

The Government announced in May that it was looking at a 20-day standstill rule, meaning that if new livestock were brought onto a farm, no more animals could arrive or leave for 20 days.

Research fellow Mark Shirley said an early programme had explored what would have happened if the 20-day rule had been in place at the start of the outbreak.

He said: "It would have stopped the disease dead in the water. It would have been a localised outbreak and it would never have got to epidemic proportions.

"If livestock were moved onto a farm, and they couldn't be moved again for 20 days, it is long enough for any disease they are carrying to become apparent."

The only way the disease could then spread would be on the wind or through vehicles. This would almost certainly have confined the outbreak to a few surrounding farms.

Researchers have also looked at the effects of mass vaccination and a more comprehensive slaughter policy, either of which would have had a similar effect in halting the spread of the disease.

But North-East National Farmers' Union policy advisor Jonathan Birnie said a 20-day rule would make farming "almost unworkable". The NFU's preferred option was to introduce electronic devices to track animals when they change hands.

A spokesman for the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said it was looking at the 20-day rule as one of a number of proposals designed to prevent a repeat of the epidemic.

* Another case of foot-and-mouth was confirmed in North Yorkshire over the weekend - the first in the county since August 7. The disease was found in livestock at Deepgrove Farm, Lythe, near Whitby

Read more about the foot-and-mouth crisis here.