First, the one sure thing. Shrek will win the first Oscar to be handed out for best animated feature film. Other than that, nothing is certain when the 74th Academy Awards ceremony gets under way in Los Angeles tomorrow.

The annual gong-giving film bash remains one of the most open in recent years. The likelihood of success for actors and movies that seemed certain of victory a few weeks ago has, through loose talk and clenched fists, been thrown in doubt.

Who'd have thought that a poem would have clouded the issue of Russell Crowe adding another best actor Oscar to stand alongside the one he won for Gladiator last year?

The Aussie actor blotted his copybook by subjecting the producer of TV coverage of the British Academy Awards to a tirade of abuse and threatened violence after part of his winning speech was cut from the broadcast.

Crowe later apologised to North-East TV executive Malcolm Gerrie for his behaviour, perhaps after "his people" realised it could undermine his Oscar chances. But the damage was done. Patriotic voters, looking for an excuse to stop a non-American win two years running, might seize on Crowe's thuggish attitude and put a cross in someone else's box.

Similarly, veteran director Robert Altman looked likely to take home the best director Oscar for British-made period drama Gosford Park. This stylish country house murder mystery was the ideal opportunity to recognise the film-maker, so far unhonoured by the Academy in a long career. Then Altman made remarks that some might perceive as un-American and, in the wake of the September 11 tragedy, anything suspiciously unpatriotic lost him friends - and votes.

As the stars walk along the red carpet into the ceremony's new home, the Kodak Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard, none are any the wiser who'll be striking gold and who'll be going home empty-handed. Perhaps, as in 2001, the prizes will be shared out among the most-nominated films. Gladiator, Traffic, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon were all rewarded, without any scoring a record-breaking haul like Titanic's 11-Oscar win.

No amount of studying form, examining trends and/or consulting Mystic Meg will provide you with a surefire formula for predicting winners, but tradition dictates that, as Hollywood goes Oscar crazy, everyone has a damn good try.

There's always the conflict between who you want to win and who will win. Often, the two don't tally. Take the best actress category. British pride dictates we cheer for York-born Judi Dench, nominated as an Alzheimer's Disease-suffering Iris Murdoch in Iris.

Playing someone afflicted with mental or physical illness is always a plus, although not enough on this occasion for Dame Judi to win. Neither will new Bond girl Halle Berry, who gets serious in Monster's Ball, or Renee Zellweger, who put on weight and an English accent for Bridget Jones's Diary.

Sissy Spacek, a previous winner for Coalminer's Daughter, has collected most of the pre-Oscar awards for her grieving mother in the low budget drama In The Bedroom. This kind of low key, intense performance is always popular with voters, if not audiences.

I can't help hoping Nicole Kidman gets her hands on an Oscar for her all-singing, all-dancing, all-round-excellent star turn in Moulin Rouge. She's certainly put in the work for a win, tirelessly attending award ceremonies and premieres since her divorce from Tom Cruise came through.

Similarly, I'd let Moulin Rouge to win best picture, if only to make up for director Baz Luhrman being overlooked in the best director category. This is a film that's bold and daring in a totally cinematic way, ample reason to honour it. Trouble is, it might be a bit too noisy and in-your-face for older Academy voters.

With Altman's comments ruling out Gosford Park (not a worthy best picture anyway) and In The Bedroom being too low profile, the best picture Oscar is a choice between The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Rings and A Beautiful Mind, about Nobel Prize-winning mathematician and schizophrenic John Nash.

Much as I admired the Tolkien fantasy epic, I'd second guess voters to put A Beautiful Mind on top. True stories always do well. Think previous winners Gandhi, Lawrence Of Arabia and Braveheart.

A Beautiful Mind has caused some tut-tutting over liberties taken with the truth but, to the makers' credit, they've never claimed it stuck 100 per cent to the facts. That criticism won't be enough to prevent it taking the top prize.

Crowe too, despite his poetic hiccup, will be named best actor, deservedly for what's an admirable performance as Nash. Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man, Daniel Day Lewis in My Left Foot, Tom Hanks as Forrest Gump and countless others before him have demonstrated that disability or madness is a winner.

Sean Penn might have thought so too when he played a mentally-ill person in I Am Sam, for which he's nominated this year. He'd reckoned without Crowe. So, too, did Will Smith, who'll be unlucky to lose for the title role in the otherwise-disappointing bio-pic Ali. That's Mohammad Ali not Ali G Smith. Best known for lightweight roles in Men In Black and Independence Day, Smith beefed up his body and learned to box to portray convincingly the former world champion.

Any other year and in a better picture, and he might have won. Denzel Washington's against-type turn as a bad cop in Training Day, and British actor Tom Wilkinson in In The Bedroom look like losers too. The supporting categories often provide the biggest surprises. Three Brits (Maggie Smith, Helen Mirren and Kate Winslet) give us a sporting chance for best supporting actress. But Jennifer Connelly, for A Beautiful Mind, has won virtually every award going so far, so don't expect any change now.

Ethan Hawke, as an idealistic cop in Training Day, is the no-hoper among the supporting actor hopefuls. A wizard (Ian McKellen, The Lord Of The Rings), a gangster (Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast) and a doting husband (Jim Broadbent, Iris) all have their admirers. I have a sneaking feeling Jon Voight might snatch Oscar from under their noses for his sports commentator in Ali, if only because he's unrecognisable beneath a mound of prosthetic make-up.

As for best director, Kiwi Peter Jackson fully deserves it for managing to film all three instalments of The Lord Of The Rings back-to-back and blend actors, special effects and storytelling into a seemless whole.

A more likely victor is Ron Howard, who's paid his dues, graduating from child star to director of box office hits like Apollo 13 and The Grinch. A Beautiful Mind is his best yet and I'll be surprised if his name isn't pulled out of the envelope. Personally, I'd give it to Baz Luhrman - but he's not even nominated.

The 74th Annual Academy Awards are on BBC2 from 12.45am tomorrow, with highlights on BBC1 on Monday at 10.35pm.