Have we lost the last paradise?

Nick Morrison looks at how the Bali bombing might affect international travel.

IF ever a holiday destination deserved a reputation as a safe and peaceful haven, it was Bali. Even though it is part of Indonesia, which has suffered from periodic bouts of political upheaval and violence, this tiny island in the Indian Ocean, just 90 miles long, has remained a jewel of tranquillity. Largely Hindu in an overwhelmingly Muslim country, Bali has been an example of religious and ethnic harmony in an increasingly turbulent world.

Now, those old certainties have been shattered. Saturday night's car bombing, which claimed more than 180 lives, including as many as 33 Britons, has swept aside any preconceptions we might have had over where it was safe to travel. On the seemingly growing list of the world's trouble spots, from places to be avoided at all costs to those where there is a small but real danger, can be added the most unlikely of names.

Some holidaymakers already en route to the island opted to turn back rather than take the risk. Others are being offered the option to cancel their forthcoming, and much anticipated, breaks. The most obvious effect of the destruction of the Sari nightclub in Kuta on tourism will be to make Bali a virtual no-go area, according to a spokeswoman for the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA).

'It is certainly going to decimate Bali's tourism for the immediate future, and I expect it will take a couple of years for it to recover," she says. "There had been advice not to travel to Indonesia after September 11 last year because of the unrest, and with it having the largest Muslim population in the world, but Bali is a Hindu enclave and had a reputation as being very peaceful."

For the UK holidaymaker, Bali is still a specialist destination, visitors largely made up of honeymooning couples, or those wanting to get married on the beach, and backpackers stopping off for a break in paradise during their trek around the world. ABTA estimates around 15-20,000 UK tourists visit the island every year, a small proportion of the two million UK package holidays.

One immediate effect of the September 11 atrocities was a sharp decline in airline travel, with an annual growth of two to three per cent in the holiday market turning into a four per cent decline over the last 12 months, although there had been signs of recovery over the summer.

And Saturday's bombing will also see an instant fall in the number of people wanting to go abroad, according to Phil Davies, editor of the industry newspaper Travel Trade Gazette.

"There will be an immediate shock effect, and it will undoubtedly make people nervous about travelling to Muslim countries," he says. "However, as has been seen in the past, the Brits are pretty resilient when it comes to travel, unlike the Americans, who decide not to travel whenever anything happens in Europe or the Middle East.

"There is going to be an anxiety about long haul travel, particularly to other Asian destinations and the Middle East. What we don't know is what the reaction will be from the US and the UK governments if there is an al Qaida link, and whether that will accelerate conflict in Iraq, which would have serious implications for the travel industry."

The saving grace for the industry, he says, is that the attack came at a quiet time for UK tourist bookings. An explosion in the peak booking period of January would have had more far-reaching implications.

ABTA's Sean Tipton says, in the past, the effect of terrorist attacks on holiday destinations has generally been a short-term dip followed by gradual recovery.

Spain's Basque terrorist faction ETA has carried out numerous fatal attacks in Spain but this has had minimal to zero impact on UK bookings of around 14 million per year. Some 62 people were killed in the 1997 Luxor massacre in Egypt but the Egyptian tourist industry recovered in three or four years. In the last year the UK was recorded as being Egypt's third largest tourism market.

And he says the likelihood is that Britons will simply visit other countries, rather than stop travelling altogether. "This is bound to impact very badly on the Balinese tourist industry, at the very least in the short-term, but UK holidaymakers are well aware that the world is not 100 per cent safe.

"The chances of them being directly affected by terrorism activity are minimal and these kinds of atrocities will not stop them from travelling abroad."

The worrying question for the holidaymaker is: if Bali isn't safe, then where is? Separatist groups in Spain, Muslim extremists in Egypt and Kurdish groups in Turkey, have all been responsible for attacks which have targeted tourists, or seen tourists caught up in the carnage.

But, while these are destinations known to carry an element of risk, Saturday's bombing will ensure that nowhere is seen as safe anymore.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office advises against any kind of travel to 29 countries, either in whole or in part, although few of them are mainstream tourist destinations. Bali is a new addition to the list.

"It has always been portrayed as a very quiet destination, even though it is within a country that has had a lot of trouble, and I suspect that is one of the reasons why it was chosen as a target," says Mr Davis. "The problem is we don't know where it could happen next. It could happen anywhere, and you either stop travelling and give in, or you carry on.

"If there were another attack of this nature, then that would have a ripple effect. People will tend to graduate to destinations that are perceived to be safe, but then Bali was perceived to be safe."

While the car bomb in Kuta may not stop people travelling, it does add an additional element of risk, wherever the destination. Even in paradise, danger may be lurking.