PRECISELY two years ago Ferdy Murphy hatched a plan to win the Aintree Grand National with Ballinclay King. Now is the day of reckoning.

Thirty daunting fences plus four-and-a-half-miles of butt-breaking effort stand between Ballinclay King and glory, and according to his genial Irish handler, the giant nine-year-old has the tools of the trade to do the job.

"When he won the Maghull Chase at the course in 2001, an hour-and-a-half before the National was run, it was then I thought to myself this horse could possibly win the big one," said Ferdy.

They say a week is a long time in politics and take it from me two years is more like a lifetime in the perilous occupation of a steeplechaser like Ballinclay King.

The prospect of serious injury or even death comes with the territory and during that period he's had his fair share of problems, most notably when pulled up twice in succession towards the end of last season.

Ballinclay King's brief eclipse was due to bleeding from the nose, a common affliction in thoroughbreds, causing discomfort and breathing problems. Ferdy's answer was to send his horse to Ireland, where a spell out at grass on limestone-based paddocks, in conjunction with a long rest, helped cure the problem. Modern medicine doesn't necessarily have all of the answers - this was Mother Nature doing her stuff yet again.

Thankfully, this season Ballinclay King has roared right back to his very best, pummelling a high-class field at Cheltenham on New Year's Day netting £23,200 for his owners Ian Guise, Barry Leatherday, and Nicola Spence.

Multiply that figure ten-fold, add another sixty grand, and you've arrived roughly at the cheque they will collect if Ballinclay does the business this afternoon. A very handsome pay-day, although surely there must be some drawbacks to Ferdy's master plan?

Apart from the other 39 runners, together with the massive slice of luck always required to win at Liverpool, stamina, or maybe lack of it, has to be the main worry. I put it to Murphy that since his horse had never won beyond three miles Ballinclay King might just run out of petrol.

"It's always been in the back of my mind that there is already a National winner in his family tree, and it's worth remembering Fred Winter reckons you need a two-and-a-half-miler to win. Plodders simply cannot compete effectively in the race anymore," he explained.

Winter, now long-retired but one of the all-time-great National Hunt trainers, didn't used to say much, but when he did open his mouth you could bet your bottom dollar it was worth listening to his advice.

Assuming Ballinclay King does see out the trip, another area of concern has to be tactics, after all there's already been mayhem at the fearsome "Chair" fence this week in the Fox Hunters' Chase on Thursday.

"I've told stable jockey Davy Russell to try to go up the inner, cut all the corners and hopefully miss any carnage," reasoned Ferdy.

In theory it all sounds very plausible, nevertheless these things do not always go to schedule, as Murphy found out to his cost when his former Scottish National winner, Paris Pike, came to grief at the very first fence at Aintree last year.

"The welfare of the horses and jockeys taking part is the most important factor and as long as they all come back safe and sound that'll do for me," was Ferdy's final proclamation on the subject.

At around 40-1 Ballinclay King represents superb each-way value, although as a general rule in the hope of getting the maximum enjoyment out of a small flutter on the day it normally pays to have three or four selections in all.

The next horse on my shopping list is therefore last year's winner Bindaree, currently priced at a solid 25-1.

Previous winners and placed horses have an excellent record at Aintree, a statistic backed up by Red Rum's amazing three wins in the race.

Bindaree jumped like a buck when scoring in 2002 and the sole reason he is such generous odds lies in the fact that his trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, recently had to shut up shop because of a bug which was affecting the performance of his horses.

It's never a bad idea to back the favourite, so my third pick is Ad Hoc, still an enticing each-way price at approximately 7-1.

Ad Hoc, a class act in every sense of the word, was still travelling sweetly when unluckily brought down at the 26th fence last year. The Paul Nicholls-trained stayer seemed poised to take a hand in the finish 12 months ago and he gets the nod from the stable's head lad, Clifford Baker.

"I ride Ad Hoc most days, we've protected his handicap mark by running him over hurdles for most of the season and hopefully luck will be on his side this year," said Baker.

Finally, like Ballinclay King, another local hope, 40-1 chance Red Striker from Richard Guest's yard at Brancepeth, might also be worth an each-way punt.

Trying to emulate Red Marauder's 2001 heroics is a hard act to follow, more especially as Guest has opted to partner Chives for Henrietta Knight having successfully applied for permission from the Jockey Club to ride against one of his own horses!

Supersub in the saddle, Larry McGrath, is an up-and-coming young jockey who won't be fazed by the big occasion.

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