'NOW is not the time for a quiet life," said Tony Blair on Monday, formally announcing the end of the second Gulf War and marking the return to domestic politics.

And there is no noisier place to start than the hullabaloo of tomorrow's local elections.

Mr Blair might have been hoping for a Baghdad boost - a surge of popularity for the statesmanlike manner in which he has conducted the war. But there is also the prospect of a Baghdad backlash - particularly among Labour activists who, even in the North-East heartlands, are not enamoured by Mr Blair leading them into what they regard as an unnecessary, and even illegal, war.

In the end, there may be a Baghdad balance, in which the boost balances the backlash, and bland domestic politics decide where - or whether - the votes are cast.

On Monday, the Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith immediately took Mr Blair's cue, and whipped off the domestic gloves. There has been an uneasy consensus between the two main parties while our troops have been risking their lives, but Mr Duncan Smith launched straight into Labour, blaming the party's chaotic asylum system and its failed policies on crime for the rise of the far right.

Mr Duncan Smith has a point - if only because he wants to take the spotlight off his own party's performance.

This is mid-term when, traditionally, which ever party is in power gets a good hammering. In 1995, mid-term in John Major's last Government, the Tories were routed; in 1999, mid-term in Mr Blair's first Parliament, the Tories under William Hague fought back, capturing 33 per cent of the vote and gaining more than 1,300 seats.

This was high water for Hague-ism, and Mr Duncan Smith is trying to water down expectations of what he might achieve above that mark. Publicly, the Conservatives say that the preposterously low figure of 30 gains would be a success; privately they are hoping for 150 or more.

But there is more to Mr Duncan Smith's point than merely an attempt to save his own skin - he is pointing out the disillusionment with all the established political parties which could let in the British National Party (BNP).

The BNP is fielding a record 221 candidates, 144 across the North and specifically 54 in the North-East.

It is no coincidence that the BNP, which has five of Britain's 20,000 councillors, should target the North-East. In most parts, the region is a one party state. There is no tradition of voting either Tory or Lib Dem, so until recently there has been no alternative to Labour.

However, last year's mayoral elections broke the mould. The nation was disaffected with Mr Blair's national Labour Party and in Hartlepool and Middlesbrough the electorate was extremely disappointed with the local Labour Party. But in those two boroughs, there was suddenly a choice: the monkey and Ray Mallon. Both the independent candidates, who have no links to extreme parties, were elected.

In Hartlepool, no one believed that the monkey mascot stood a chance - but the BNP will be hoping to win a similar protest vote.

The BNP will also be hoping that most people protest by staying at home - possibly this is why Sunderland is the spearhead of its campaign, as here just ten per cent voted in a mayoral referendum, just 20 per cent in some local election wards and just 44 per cent in the General Election. With such low turnouts, if the BNP inspires a few supporters to go to the polls, it stands a chance of winning - which is why such high profile people as Sunderland FC chairman Bob Murray, the out-going Bishop of Durham Michael Turnbull and Horrible Histories author Terry Deary have all urged Sunderland people to vote.

The level of apathy will determine the day: whether the BNP makes significant in-roads, whether the Lib Dems can really become the second party, whether Mr Duncan Smith gets a second chance as leader and whether Mr Blair and his domestic agenda can be re-united quietly.

* Here, The Northern Echo shows how the election battles are shaping up in the region