A RISE in the size of the UK breeding flock last year, along with a good lambing rate and likely lower ewe lamb retention, is forecast to lead to a supply of 13.8m head during the next season.
Jane Connor, MLC senior economic analyst, said a return to pre-foot-and-mouth levels of 15.2m a year was unlikely to be achieved again in the short or medium term.
Supply has shown a modest rate of growth from 13.1m in 2002-3 to a forecast 13.8m in 2003-4 and 14.1m in 2004-5, despite lamb prices throughout 2002 being the highest for five years, and it looks set to remain firm for this year.
However, uncertainty about the future - especially about CAP reform - means many producers have adopted a wait-and-see policy before making decisions about future flock sizes.
The UK breeding flock is forecast to rise just 1pc by December this year and remain fairly static during 2004. Increased lamb availability is also good news on the export front, especially with continuing strong demand from the Continent. Last year lamb exports recovered to 56,000 tonnes carcase weight and could reach 67,000 tonnes in 2004 - back to more than 65pc of pre-foot-and-mouth levels.
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