LIFE is often stranger than fiction and the Sars epidemic is proving as terrifying as anything horror writer James Herbert could dream up.

The unfolding tragedy has been an almost surreal experience for me because, seven years ago, a health expert explained to me exactly how such a virus could emerge.

I was a police officer at a conference on psychological profiling and, during a meal, I was chatting with a fellow delegate, a health expert based with the UN in Switzerland, and we pondered how the world might end.

I thought an asteroid collision would be the most likely cause, but my conference colleague calmly assured me that an as yet undiscovered virus, lying dormant in a jungle or wherever, was a far more likely cause.

He reminded me very much of the character played by Dustin Hoffman in the film Outbreak, and his words came back with chilling recollection as I read about the Sars virus which has brought Hong Kong to a standstill. The major problem lies not just with the virus, but with mass panic and the crippling of vital services.

In a moving letter to the Daily Telegraph, a Chinese physician, now working in Britain, has detailed how her colleagues working on the Sars epidemic in Hong Kong have been affected. Dr Susan Chu explained how one in four Sars victims are healthcare workers and, in one instance, an entire intensive care unit team was infected after they tried to resuscitate a dying doctor. All non-urgent medical services in the city have been halted, a ventilator shortage means doctors are effectively playing God, while urgent appeals have been made for funds to buy the £2-a-time disposable gowns which are being used at a rate of 10,000 a day.

Other reports detail how the economy has been crippled, with residents frightened to go out, public transport deserted and planes grounded.

Throughout the Iraqi conflict the emphasis has been on the threat of weapons of mass destruction and, in particular, biological warfare. It's the attack society fears most because, with modern travel, a virus can be spread worldwide within 24 hours.

It was reassuring then to read of Lin Thomas, from Stockport, who probably contracted the then little known Sars virus during a flight stopover in Singapore while holidaying in the Far East.

Four weeks ago, back home, and fearing she had a bad cold, she telephoned her GP and mentioned the stopover. Staff made her an immediate appointment and she was met by surgery staff wearing masks. An emergency ambulance - stripped of equipment to avoid contamination - arrived within minutes and she has spent much of the past month in isolation in hospital.

Happily, Lin, one of six suspected Sars victims in this country, is now on the road to recovery. But the episode demonstrates the efficiency of our much-maligned health service. Clearly, at a time when most of the public were unaware of the danger, essential workers were on full alert. How many could have been affected if the doctor had simply told Lin to take an aspirin and go to bed?

Perhaps the Dustin Hoffman figure I met over lunch all those years ago is responsible for the safeguards which are now Britain's first line of defence against Sars.

Published: 02/05/2003