After serving two years of his sentence, Jeffrey Archer will be releasd from prison today.

Nick Morrison looks at what the future holds for the disgraced novelist and politician.

THIS morning, prisoner number FF8282 will walk out of Hollesley Bay open prison in Suffolk a free man. It won't be the first time he's left the confines of his jail - previous outings have seen him go out for pizza, work in a theatre and even, notoriously, attend a champagne party - but this time it's for good. Jeffrey Archer will have done his time.

It was on Friday, July 20, 2001, that the former Conservative MP, party chairman and one-time candidate for London Mayor, as well as best-selling novelist and party host to the rich and famous, woke up to his first morning behind bars. If his prison diaries are to be believed, he rose at 6am and sat behind his writing desk.

Parole means he will have served two years of the four-year sentence imposed when he was convicted of perjury, following a six-week trial. It was a precipitous fall for someone who counted prime ministers among his friends.

Now he will be facing up to life in the outside world, a world where he has been publicly humiliated and become the target of ridicule. But it is not the first time the famously resilient Archer will have to bounce back from adversity.

In 1974 he left the House of Commons on the verge of financial ruin. An unwise investment, which saw him borrow £350,000 and put his home up as security, left him a victim of an elaborate share swindle. Forced to sell his house, he moved with his wife Mary and two sons to a rented flat in Cambridge.

But with what was to become his characteristic irrepressibility, Archer turned the experience to his own advantage, using it as the plot for his first novel, Not a Penny More, Not a Penny Less. Although it was only a moderate success, it paved the way for a lucrative writing career, as his second tome, Kane and Abel, became a bestseller, leading him to amass a fortune estimated at £60m.

Under Margaret Thatcher, his dormant political star began to rise again, and in 1985 he became Tory deputy chairman and a star attraction at Conservative Associations up and down the country.

But his ascendancy proved short-lived. In October 1986, the News of the World published a story alleging Archer had paid a prostitute, Monica Coghlan. He resigned as deputy chairman to fight for his good name, and a year later celebrated a libel victory against the Daily Star, netting him £500,000 in damages.

His name cleared, he set about re-establishing his place in the Tory party, and in 1999 he was chosen as the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London, endorsed by William Hague as a man of "probity and integrity". Just weeks later, he stood down after confessing he had asked a friend to concoct an alibi for him, setting in motion the chain of events which was to lead to his perjury trial.

Few would bet against Archer rebounding again, despite pictures published earlier this month which appeared to show him in less than top spirits. The photographs, of Archer walking through the prison library, appeared to show his spell in prison had affected both his demeanour and his waistline.

On his release, he is said to be keen to resume his seat in the House of Lords - he was created Baron Archer of Weston-super-Mare - despite suggestions that he should be barred, and speak as a crossbencher on prison reform. He is also expected to release a second volume of his prison diaries.

Other public figures who have suffered disgrace have deemed it prudent to undergo a period out of the limelight - from former War Minister John Profumo, who threw himself into charity work after his relationship with Christine Keeler was exposed in the 1960s, to Jonathan Aitken, who embraced Christianity after his conviction for perjury in 1999.

But the evidence suggests this may not be the course favoured by Archer. For a man who has always blurred the distinction between truth and fantasy, and who has a history of exaggerating both his own abilities and his importance, a life of quiet, self-reflection is probably not an option.

"He does have this self-confidence, and the fact that he believes he has been unfairly treated means he is likely to want to show everyone that he is not as bad as he's been painted. He's not going to just sit back," says Barry Sudworth, chartered psychologist at Teesside University.

"He does believe that he has been wronged, and he is going to look for ways of re-establishing himself, and that will be trying to emphasise his good sides and perhaps ignoring, or playing down, his negative sides."

This is not to say that Archer will resume his old lifestyle. Although his record of mistakes may suggest otherwise, he is a shrewd man and knows that he will have to work to regain his place in society. The foundation stone for this is likely to be his wife Mary, who has stood by him despite public humiliation through a series of infidelities. But restoring his image will be a gradual process.

"Getting back into acceptability is not going to be easy, but I have no doubt that, with the type of person he is, he will be able to do more than survive. He will be aiming to work himself back in small steps," says Mr Sudworth.

"I don't think he is going to come back with a bombshell - I think he knows that to do that will probably be counter-productive - but he will have to show that he is in control of himself."

Changes in social attitudes may make his rehabilitation easier: we are now far more forgiving than we ever were, and far more accepting of faults in our public figures. While it is true that those higher up the social ladder have more people beneath them ready to take aim, only the most heinous of crimes are enough to consign celebrities to oblivion.

When Archer walks through those doors today, he is sure to be met by a substantial welcoming party of photographers and cameramen, followed by a round of television appearances, perhaps giving him the opportunity for a very public show of humility. He may have been a little chastened by his experience, but he is not likely to want to disappear altogether. The world has not heard the last of Jeffrey Archer.