MAKING predictions in politics is a perilous business. But it is our belief that Home Secretary David Blunkett will still be in the Government at the end of the year.

There is a vociferous school of thought in Westminster which is adamant that Mr Blunkett cannot survive and will go any day.

The events of yesterday, when he was forced to accept that he had been "arrogant" in making scathing comments about Cabinet colleagues, certainly piled on the pressure and left him looking more isolated than ever.

An official spokesman for the Prime Minister summed up Mr Blunkett's latest embarrassment by saying his comments had been made on a "bad day".

But criticising Cabinet members to a biographer - calling them soft, weak, and prone to panic - is more than just a "bad day" indiscretion. It is another example of rank bad judgement by a man whose job it is to make hugely important decisions on behalf of the country.

That said, we stick by the view that he will be Home Secretary into the New Year because - by his own admission - he is arrogant and therefore extremely unlikely to fall on his sword.

Even if he wanted to, Tony Blair would not sack Mr Blunkett before Sir Alan Budd's report on his investigations into whether he misused his ministerial position during his affair with Kimberly Quinn.

And the Christmas recess is coming along at just the right time to take the heat out of the situation.

However, in the longer term, we believe that Mr Blunkett's arrogance and poor judgement have left him fatally wounded and 2005 will see a vacancy for a Home Secretary.