RESEARCHERS at a North-East university have made a breakthrough which could save thousands of lives every year by predicting when natural disasters will occur.

The Durham University team has developed a means of precisely calculating the moment when a hillside will reach the point of catastrophic failure and produce a landslide.

On average, 8,000 people worldwide are killed by landslides every year and, with the events of the Boxing Day tsunami focusing world attention on predicting such natural disasters, it is hoped the development could lead to an early warning system.

Dr David Petley, reader in geography, said: "We may not be able to prevent landslides, but with advance knowledge we hope we can help to reduce the human casualties."

The research team from the International Landslide Centre, formed in 2003 and, based in the university's geography department, have been working on means of predicting landslides. The team is on 24-hour standby to fly out to a disaster anywhere in the world.

Landslides are most common in developing countries, often triggered by heavy rainfall or earthquakes.

By measuring slopes and soil movements using a laser scanner and studying it on computer models in the lab using a black box recorder to simulate conditions within the landslide, the Durham team has developed a calculation which can predict the future behaviour of the landslide.

Dr Petley said: "Under certain conditions, we can predict exactly when a slope might move, and whether it will be a rapid and catastrophic failure or slow movement."

The university team is working alongside NASA scientists around the world to detect landslide movements using satellite tracking.