'Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for me!" These are the words that Julius Caesar did not say on his assassination on this day in 44 BC.

"Et tu Brute!" was what he did say, as his friend and rival plunged the knife in. Ironically, Caesar's death prevented his plans, later that week, for a military campaign in Parthia, the region around modern-day Iraq.

Brutus had fought against Caesar during Rome's then recent civil war, and had a long-standing opposition to any self-appointed dictator for life. And so, still on the theme of friends and bitter rivals, the financial world will clamour to hear the words of Chancellor Gordon Brown, tomorrow. There can be little doubt that the Budget will be the springboard to the official announcement of the date of the General Election.

The markets can and do move violently with any changes announced in the Budget. The traditional start of any Budget speech was 3.30pm, at the former close of play for the Stock Exchange. In the late 1990s, market trading was extended to 4.30pm. This meant that the first hour of the Budget speech had little in the way of unexpected news. Recently, most of the detail is only seen in the subsequently released Budget report, once the market has closed.

A further break in tradition this year sees the Chancellor reach the despatch box at high noon. A cynic would conclude that there may be little in the way of changes to tax legislation, and that the earlier time merely ensures maximum media coverage in the evening news broadcasts.

Without getting too bogged down by politics, it has been widely predicted that the financial focus may well be on the grey vote, and pension funding. More than a third of those voting will be pensioners, with as many as 1.8 million thought to be floating voters. The fastest-growing sector of society are pensioners. The over-65s make up an increasing proportion of the population - 16 per cent in 2003, compared with 13 per cent in 1971. The power of the over-65s is not simply down to demographics, as they hold a much greater proportion of the country's wealth.

One of the interesting items for bond markets is the Chancellor's likely announcement that the Government will issue ultra-long 50 year government debt. With interest rates still at historically low levels, yields are so low at the moment that locking in for an extremely long period of time seems like one of the easiest investment decisions the Government and Debt Management Office can make.

Index-linked government bonds are seriously out of favour, and gilts are providing better returns. The yield on 20-year index-linked government bonds has been on a downward trend since the early 1990s, falling from nearly 4.5 per cent in 1991 to 1.5 per cent at the end of last year.

Pension funds are increasingly seeking the security of fixed-interest assets to match their largely fixed liabilities, driving up the price of government bonds and the yield correspondingly lower.

Unlike private investors' appetite for equities, there is clearly still institutional demand for switches from equity into bonds to help cap liabilities from guaranteed annuities, often offered ten or 20 years ago. These things make markets. Rome wasn't built in a day.

* For investment advice contact Anthony Platts on 01642 608855.

Published: 15/03/2005