AS Tony Blair looks ahead to a May 5 election, there are many who believe that a Labour victory is as inevitable as the chances of Lee Bowyer getting into bother.

They are probably right because, despite new polls showing the Conservatives closing the gap, they do not appear to pack a knockout punch.

It is not that the country is preparing to cheer another Labour victory from the rafters. It is because voters are not disillusioned enough with Mr Blair to be swayed by Michael Howard.

That said, the Labour Party must guard against the complacency and arrogance which has crept in during two terms of power in which the lack of serious opposition has been a godsend to a Government which has tested our trust.

There is plenty of evidence of smugness here in the North-East, from MPs to local councillors, who believe that defeat is out of the question.

As the Prime Minister's local newspaper, our message is that a Labour victory should not be taken for granted. There is satisfaction over the management of the national economy and belief that health and education have fared better than would have been the case under the Tories.

But there is disquiet over the false premise on which the war in Iraq was fought, frustration from excessive spin and broken manifesto pledges such as tuition fees.

Labour will probably win another term on May 5. But it certainly should not be counting any chickens.

The Government made the mistake of taking the result for granted during last year's referendum on an elected assembly for the North-East and look what happened then - it got thumped.