YOU wait all day for a bus, and then three come along at once.

A similar investment analogy that may apply to the stock market may be in force, as the rally continues ever higher.

According to the timetable, though, the buses have arrived earlier than expected.

The bullish investor jumps on the first bus, knowing that as long as it doesn’t change its route it will arrive at its destination first.

The cautious investor may jump on the second bus, thinking that the first bus might well be delayed at the next stop, and they will actually get to the destination first.

The timid investor will eventually jump on the third bus, thinking that they may miss out on the journey otherwise.

The bearish investor points to the timetable and insists the buses are too early.

They ignore the buses, stay at the stop, and wait and wait.

Eventually, it dawns on them that they have missed the bus.

To compound the problem they comfort themselves with the thought that the buses will break down, not arriving at their destination.

As far as the short term FTSE has traded this year, to the end of April, the first FTSE bus set off on March 3, returning an increase of 21 per cent.

The second FTSE bus set off on March 30, returning an increase of 13 per cent.

The third FTSE bus set off on April 8, returning an increase of eight per cent.

Given that the long-term average capital growth of the FTSE, per annum, not taking into account dividend payments, is around five per cent, then this recovery seems a lot to have missed out on.

There are many bears claiming that the current recession shares little similarity to that of the Eighties and Nineties.

They refer to the great depression of the Thirties as a better comparison.

The fact that they were not around to experience the Thirties does not seem to deter them.

They feel the bus timetable must be right, and the buses must be wrong.

They will set off when there is no traffic on the roads.

At this point it is important to realise how some of the economic statistics are measured.

Annual house prices, inflation and GDP figures, for example, are rolling previous 12 month figures.

It may surprise some to know that inflation actually increased in the last few months, giving hope that deflation may be short lived or not experienced at all.

The large falls in inflation seen late last year, from relative highs, weigh strongly on the annualised 12-month figure.

The fact that inflation rose in March was a huge embarrassment to that harbinger of doom, the BBC, which had already started running stories about negative inflation.

It then had to wait until April to find an annualised negative RPI figure, even though inflation increased in April again.

CPI, the more commonly used inflation figure, was conveniently ignored as this did not reflect bad news.

The FTSE 100 posted its biggest monthly increase since April 2003.

The US market provided its best monthly performance since 1991, which coincided with an end to a recession then.

The definition of a bull market is an increase of 20 per cent, which we have had, so are out of a bear market.

The passengers on the first bus are smiling, so far.

By Anthony Platts

■ Anthony Platts is a divisional director in the Teesside office of Brewin Dolphin, and can be contacted on 0845-213-1340. All prices quoted in the article are from public sources. The views expressed are not necessarily held throughout the Brewin Dolphin Group. You should bear in mind that no investment is suitable for all circumstances and it is important to seek expert advice if in any doubt. Brewin Dolphin Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchange, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.