A team led by North East experts has secured £4 million in funding to explore one of space science’s greatest mysteries.
The researchers from Northumbria University will investigate why Earth’s radiation belts remain unpredictable, with the goal of improving satellite protection.
Radiation belts are zones surrounding Earth where the planet’s magnetic field traps fast-moving charged particles—some nearly reaching the speed of light. These belts can change in intensity and size in just hours or days, posing a threat to satellites operating within them.
Professor Clare Watt, professor of space physics at Northumbria University and the project lead, said: "Despite decades of research and sophisticated NASA missions that have sampled these harsh environments directly, the radiation belts have remained frustratingly unpredictable.
"This project will help us understand whether that's because we don't fully grasp the physics involved, or because parts of the system are inherently chaotic and sensitive to tiny changes in conditions."
The behaviour of these belts is driven by energy and disturbances from the sun, but scientists have yet to develop reliable models to forecast how they will react under different circumstances.
The five-year project aims to change that by combining spacecraft data from international missions with advanced computer modelling to uncover what controls energy transfer through the magnetosphere and into the radiation belts.
The project has received funding through the Science and Technology Facilities Council’s Large Awards scheme, designed to support research addressing fundamental scientific questions.
Understanding the belts isn’t just an academic exercise—accurate forecasting is critical to protecting the satellites that support everyday technologies such as GPS, telecommunications, and weather prediction.
Prof Watt said: "Earth’s radiation belts are the only place in the universe where we can directly sample such high-energy astrophysical environments.
"The insights from this project will be crucial for transforming scientific models into operational forecasting tools, helping us predict space weather conditions and protect vital satellite infrastructure."
The research team includes Professor Jonny Rae and Dr Sarah Bentley from Northumbria University, Dr Oliver Allanson from the University of Birmingham, and Dr Ravindra Desai from the University of Warwick.
Dr Allanson said: "It is an eternal wonder that microscale interactions of subatomic particles that occur in one thousandth of a second can determine the global evolution of the near-Earth radiation environment over hundreds of thousands of kilometres, and with it the fate of key space assets."
The project will deliver recommendations on improving space weather forecasts, including where real-time data should be included in models and how ensemble modelling can deliver probabilistic predictions.
Northumbria University is home to an internationally recognised Solar and Space Physics research group.
The University plays a key role in the UK's national SWIMMR programme—a £20 million initiative supporting the Met Office's space weather forecasting capabilities.
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In 2023, Northumbria announced the creation of its North East Space Skills and Technology Centre (NESST), backed by £50 million in investment.
Partners on the Centre include the UK Space Agency and Lockheed Martin UK Space.
The centre is expected to create more than 350 jobs and generate £260 million for the regional economy over the next three decades.
