Reform UK could win EVERY County Durham seat says pollster

Nigel Farage's party would turn every seat in the region turquoise if an election was held now, Electoral Calculus predicts.

It would represent a complete reversal of General Election results just a year ago which saw Labour win back the so-called 'red wall' seats it lost in 2019 - reducing the Conservative party to only one MP in the North East.

But the scale of this predicted result would see all traditional parties in the county defeated with Reform winning seats from Darlington to City of Durham and every seat on Teesside.

The only non-Reform MPs in the entire North East would be in Hexham, Tynemouth and Newcastle North. 

The polling also predicts Reform would even defeat former PM Rishi Sunak in Richmond and Northallerton, based on the figures which predict the party would win 362 seats nationally - enough for a majority.

A prediction has Reform winning more than 300 seats. (Image: Electoral Calculus) Reform's leader of Durham County Council Andrew Husband said: “Our results in the local elections were astonishing. Coming from a standing start in County Durham we reduced Labour to a rump in their traditional heartlands.

“From senior Labour figures like Andy McDonald to the last Tory MP in the North East, no-one is safe from Reform's rise. Voters across Durham and North Yorkshire have had enough of the tired two-party system.”

The pollster's founder, Martin Baxter, said the prediction 'won't get every seat right', but is based on a combined estimate from the company's own polls and a national 'poll-of-polls'.

"Reform are seen as an alternative to the traditional parties, as Reform are not tainted by the failures of the past. However, it's not clear if Reform can solve some of these deep-seated problems," Mr Baxter said.

Labour would lose all its seats in County Durham according to the prediction. (Image: Chris Booth) "Reform has been steadily gaining ground in the polls since last autumn. This could be driven by voters' unhappiness about how both the Conservatives and Labour have failed to deliver.

"People tell us they are concerned about the economy, immigration and the health service, but recent governments have not delivered on those."

Reform UK took control of Durham County Council after May 1's election in a result that sent a political shockwave through the nation. 

But a Labour spokesperson is not resigned to defeat, saying patience is needed.

Reform took control of Durham County Council this month. (Image: Stuart Boulton) "The Labour Government is getting on with the job of delivering change for working people in the North East," they said.

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"We’ve always been clear, change doesn’t happen overnight and we are just as impatient and hungry for that change as the rest of the country.

"We are a year into a serious project to turn the country round with the Plan for Change – and that’s why we will respond to recent election results by going further and faster to deliver it."

Results predicted by Electoral Calculus are based on opinion polls from May 2 to May 22, sampling 15,311 people.