THE Conservative party face the prospect of large scale losses in key battlegrounds across the North East if there was a general election tomorrow, according to the latest YouGov MRP model.

In data released on Saturday (May 28) from the market research provider, YouGov predicted that the Tory party would lose seven seats that it gained in the 2019 general election.

Three years ago, many North East voters backed the Conservative party and turned a previous ‘red wall’ into a Tory stronghold – amid a political change in the region, and for many places, ‘turned it blue’ for the first time ever.

Read more: Closure of the last shop in Hurworth Place

However, given the latest research published – which asked 15,000 voters across the UK – seats in Blyth Valley, North West Durham, Darlington, Stockton South, Sedgefield and Redcar would be lost.

It even predicts that Bishop Auckland MP, Dehenna Davison, who won the constituency by 8,000 votes in 2019 would lose her seat if an election was called tomorrow.

The Northern Echo: The political make-up of the North East after the 2019 election. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.The political make-up of the North East after the 2019 election. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.

Nationally, the picture is the same – with YouGov revealing that 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either won from Labour in 2019, or currently hold with a majority of less than 15pts over Labour, just three would remain in Conservative hands: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North.   

The Northern Echo: Darlington MP, Peter Gibson. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.Darlington MP, Peter Gibson. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.

Elsewhere, Boris Johnson’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would likely fall into Labour hands, with current results suggesting a 5pt Labour lead in the constituency.

Despite the  data for the Conservative party, YouGov itself has highlighted potential issues with some of the research, including the fact that the next general election will be fought using new constituency boundaries – which are currently under consideration.

The Northern Echo: Dehenna Davison, Bishop Auckland MP. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.Dehenna Davison, Bishop Auckland MP. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.

Associate director of YouGov, Patrick English, said: “While Labour look set to take back a raft of ‘Red Wall’ areas from the Conservatives, based on current polling, the Tory vote in some places – particularly those in more rural areas up and down the East of the country – means, some newly-minted Conservative incumbents will fare much better than others.

“There is however a lot of uncertainty around these figures.

The Northern Echo: Richard Holden, North West Durham MP. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.Richard Holden, North West Durham MP. Picture: NORTHERN ECHO.

“The next election is of course not scheduled for another two years, and the boundaries on which it will be fought are currently planned to change.

“What’s more, no fewer than 25 battleground constituencies are currently forecasted to be won by a margin of less than five percentage points – well inside what we would consider a ‘margin of error’ for an exercise of this nature.”

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