Who really is going to make the music headlines next year. Andy Welch looks a little further than X Factor winner, Matt Cardle, to find out.

ONLY last weekend, Simon Cowell and Nicole Scherzinger demonstrated what a fickle business it is on X Factor’s spin-off show, revealing they’d both predicted Gamu Nhengu would go on to win the competition.

In reality, the Zimbabwean immigrant had to be ditched by mentor Cheryl Cole and sent back to Scotland, when she and her family faced a deportation court case (they’ve since won the right to stay in the UK).

Instead all eyes are fixed on winner Matt Cardle who has everything to prove over the next year or so. And he’d do well to learn from his predecessors.

Cowell’s quick to point to his success stories – namely Leona and JLS – but his failures are far more compelling.

In the same week the 2010 contest came to a close, the latest single from last year’s South Shields-born winner Joe McElderry limped into the charts at No 68, while the show’s first victor, Steve Brookstein, cancelled a gig in a high street coffee shop because no one could be bothered turning up.

It will be very interesting to see how the coming 12 months treat Emma’s Imagination. Dumfries singer songwriter Emma Gillespie won Must Be The Music, Sky’s answer to X Factor, earlier this year, along with the chance to perform in front of 10,000 people at Wembley Arena and £100,000.

Her debut album Stand Still and first single This Day are ready to go in January. She’s certainly popular with music fans, her winning song from the series rocketed up the iTunes chart, she’s genuinely talented and it’s difficult to imagine Radio 2 not claiming her for their own, as they’ve done with similar artists KT Tunstall and Amy Macdonald.

Away from the world of TV talent shows, there’s Jessie J – a 22-year-old Essex girl that’d make Simon Cowell blush.

She’s already telling us to Do It Like A Dude – a song she says she wrote for Rihanna but decided to keep for herself – and it won’t be long before even more people are hanging on her every shouty word.

More subtle is Pete Lawrie. The Welsh songwriter has a voice somewhere between David Gray and Ray LaMontagne, and writes songs which sound like... David Gray and Ray LaMontagne.

Of course, that’s not going to win you over if you don’t like either of those artists, but Pete is an honest singer in the great acoustic tradition, and a writer of heartfelt, accessible pop songs. If, come the summer festivals, there aren’t fields of people singing the words to In The End and All That We Keep back to him, something has gone wrong.

Heavily tipped in 2011 are Mona.from Nashville, Tennessee, although the four members are from all different parts of the US. Dubbed The Princes Of Leon by NME, it’s easy to compare them to the Kings Of Leon – the two bands are close friends for starters – and there are also similarities in terms of the music’s scale and Southern origin. It’s also pleasing to hear a young band with such ambition.

Clare Maguire is another artist who could clean up next year. Already endorsed by the music press, it’s only a matter of time before the general public catch on to the Birmingham singer, who cites influences as diverse and pleasing as Sister Rosetta Tharpe, Portishead and Jay-Z.

Music blogs all over the internet have been awash with talk of James Blake’s talents. The first thing most people heard was his take on Limit To Your Love, originally by Canadian artist Feist, but now tracks from his forthcoming album back up his early promise.

Jamie Woon is another from the Brit School training conveyor belt to watch out for.

Since Girls Aloud went their separate ways – only temporarily, they’ve been saying for the last two years – there’s been a girl band battle to replace them. The Saturdays and Pussycat Dolls are now being challenged by Wonderland and Parade – the former the brainchild of Louis Walsh and Westlife’s Kian Egan, while the latter, although less well connected, have the right balance of songs, attitude and good looks that might just see them do really well.

While last year’s favourites were Delphic, Ellie Goulding and Daisy Dares You, it’s been artists such as Bruno Mars, Tinie Tempah and Plan B who’ve defined 2010, and hardly anyone saw coming.

Hopefully the same fate doesn’t await the current front-runners for fame. This week Matt Cardle’s X Factor winner’s song entered the charts at number one and leaves Joe McElderry with the uneviable record of the only X Factor winner without a Christmas hit.