Talking Horses: York's Dante Festival set to provide some Derby pointers

The Derby market in particular remains in a state of complete confusion, so with four of the six leading contenders in the ante-post lists lining up in the Betfred Dante tomorrow, it is safe to assume things will look markedly different by the time the eight-strong field has negotiated the extended mile-and-a-quarter.

Two of tomorrow’s entrants hail from Aiden O’Brien’s yard at Ballydoyle, and while the Irish champion trainer has tended to keep his leading lights away from the Dante in the past, his decision to field both John F Kennedy and Ol’ Man River tomorrow reflects the extent to which his Derby plans remain in turmoil less than a month before the race.

Gleneagles, an impressive winner of the 2,000 Guineas, will be kept to a mile, while Highland Reel, Sir Isaac Newton and Giovanni Canaletto were all touted as potential Derby candidates over the winter, only to suffer from a loss of form or fitness in recent weeks.

Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro triumphed in small fields in the Chester Vase and Lingfield Derby Trial respectively, but both felt like weak renewals and, while the former in particular is expected to take his chance at Epsom, they remain part of O’Brien’s ‘B’ or even ‘C’ team.

John F Kennedy is part of the top rank, even though he ceded his position as long-term ante-post favourite for the Derby when he trailed in third of three at odds of 1-4 in a Group Three at Leopardstown last week.

That was as laboured a performance as you could imagine, so the fact O’Brien has not completely lost faith suggests much better is expected tomorrow.

The same is surely true of Ol’ Man River, whose last-place finish in the 2,000 Guineas owed at least something to Joseph O’Brien’s refusal to ask too much of him when his race had clearly been run.

It was always felt that Ol’ Man River would be better over a mile-and-a-half than a mile, and a strong display on the Knavesmire could yet see him lining up at Epsom as the pick of the Ballydoyle crop.

“We all like the horse and were feeling fairly confident he would run a good race (in the 2,000 Guineas),” said Kevin Buckley, racing representative for the colt’s owners, Coolmore. “But Joseph, to be fair, did exactly the right thing and just sat on him and eased him down. I believe he’s come out of the race okay, so we’ll take a look (in the Dante).”

O’Brien’s remarkable Classic record means his leading three-year-olds always have to be treated with respect, but for once, it might pay to look elsewhere, both tomorrow and in three-and-a-half weeks time.

Jack Hobbs, trained by John Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, is set to start as favourite for the Dante, and has shortened to around 4-1 in the Derby market this week.

He has only run twice, but was hugely impressive as he cruised to a 12-length win in the Bet365 Handicap at Sandown last week. The form of that race doesn’t amount to much, but his performance could hardly have been more visually impressive.

His leading rival at the head of the Dante market is Elm Park, and having pulled out of the 2,000 Guineas when the ground became too quick for him, last year’s Racing Post Trophy winner is much more likely to have his preferred going tomorrow.

His two-year-old campaign, which included a win in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket, marked him out as a star in the making, and if he has trained on again over the winter, he could be hard to beat.

“We ideally wanted to run him in the Guineas, but the ground was too fast to risk him,” said David Redvers, manager of Qatar Racing. “This is the next best trial.

“He is one of the top-rated horses in the Derby, and he has to go to York for the experience. We are very optimistic he can give a good show. It looks a very hot race but, not wanting to sound overly bullish, he is the one the rest of them have to beat.”

While tomorrow’s Dante could well end up supplying the Derby favourite, it would be a surprise if today’s Group Two Musidora Stakes was quite as influential in terms of shaping the market for the Oaks.

With Legatissimo, the winner of the 1,000 Guineas, and Diamondsandrubies, an eye-catching winner of last week’s Cheshire Oaks, joining last year’s leading juvenile, Found, at the head of the ante-post lists, there is unlikely to be a huge amount of movement before the off at Epsom.

Nevertheless, today’s Musidora could still provide some clues, with Star Of Seville (Evens) and Together Forever (13-8) expected to dominate in a five-horse field.

Together Forever, another Balldoyle resident, is making her seasonal debut after being scratched from the 1,000 Guineas, and having won the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket in October, she remains highly regarded.

She could have it all to do to beat Star Of Seville, however, with the John Gosden-trained filly the likeliest domestic challenger to the O’Brien battalions come Oaks day.

Star Of Seville won a decent juvenile race at Doncaster last October, and any cobwebs should have been well and truly blown away by a comprehensive success at Newbury last month.

“She has been pleasing in her work since she won at Newbury,” said Gosden. “She goes there (to the Musidora) happy and well, and we’re not worried what the ground is like as she can handle anything.”

THREE OTHER HORSES TO WATCH AT YORK TODAY

TRES CORONAS (2.10, 10-1)

He might not win all that often, but David Barron’s eight-year-old is a reliable performer who goes well at York, and who made a decent reappearance finishing second at Chester last week.

MASS RALLY (2.40, 11-1)

Michael Dods’ sprinter slipped down the weights last season, and given his love of these competitive big-field handicaps, should be hugely competitive on his preferred ground.

LIGHTNING MOON (3.15, 6-1)

Ed Walker’s four-year-old has only run three times, but he’s never been beaten, and while he’s up against some hardened campaigners in the Duke of York Stakes, there’s plenty of scope for improvement.