Arc Day remains the highlight of the Flat racing calendar for me and we have a wonderful weekend of racing to look forward to in Britain, Ireland but especially France. 

We start at Longchamp and since 1994 three-year-olds have been successful in the Arc de Triomphe 16 times and I think the classic generation will hold sway again this time out as the best middle distance turf horses in the world converge on Paris on Sunday.

Twelve months ago Treve turned the race into a procession, despite being trapped wide and pulling hard, beating the five-year-old Japanese superstar Orfevre as three-year-olds dominated with four of the first five home. The French filly has disappointed in three starts so far this season, however, and history is against her following up.

No horse has won the Arc back-to-back since Alleged in 1997/8 and it would be a surprise if Treve were able to buck that trend given her performance in the Prix Vermeille last time was laboured. She is out to 10/1 at BetVictor and is hard to make a case for on this season’s form.

I like lightly-raced progressive three-year-olds in the race and step forward last month’s Prix Niel winner Ectot (5/1) who showed a devastating turn of foot to sweep to the front two out before idling on Trials’ Day in the fastest time of the day. The colt has only lost once, on debut, and his trainer Elie Lellouche has already saddled Helissio (1996) to do the Niel/Arc double.

Oaks winner Taghrooda is out to 11/2 having been drawn in 15 (of 20) and a low number is preferable in such a big field. She lost her unbeaten record to Tapestry (the mount of Ryan Moore) at York last time and significant rain (heavy showers are forecast for Saturday evening) would be less than ideal.

Unbeaten dual French classic winner Avenir Certain (8/1) returned from a two-month break to beat a modest field in Group 2 at Deauville last time when not carrying a penalty for either of her classic successes. Zarkava did the Pouliches-Prix de Diane-Arc hat-trick back in 2008 and Avenir Certain must go close if her stamina holds out, but that is a big if and she is reluctantly overlooked despite a cracking draw in stall one.

We will have a Japanese winner of the great race sooner rather than later and Harp Star (8/1 at BetVictor) must enter calculations having returned from a short break to land the Group 2 Sapporo Kinen in August beating odds on favourite Gold Ship (16s).

The best of the Japanese, and the older horses, could be Just A Way despite having to prove his stamina. The five-year-old has never won beyond 10f but his four lengths defeat of Gentildonna over ten furlongs last October was magnificent and one franked a month later when the runner up landed the Japan Cup under Ryan Moore.

It is Ecot for France for me with the fillies’ Taghrooda and Tapestry to follow him home.

There’s a top class card from Ascot on Saturday and Muthmir (2.05) must take the beating in the opening Rous Stakes having put up a stunning performance in the Portland at Doncaster last time. Connections were considering supplementing him for the Abbeye but if in the same mood as last time he will be very hard to beat.

Enke (2.40) is five pounds better off with Pether’s Moon for the length he beat the former Leger winner at Goodwood in August. That was the selection’s first start for 685 days and he has subsequently finished third in the Irish Leger behind Brown Panther.

Dungannon has slipped to an attractive mark and this dual C&D winner can land the finale back on a straight course and reunited with Oisin Murphy for the first time since they teamed up to win at Doncaster in October.  Showers are forecast and the more the merrier.

The Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar looks at the mercy of Limato (2/1 at BetVictor) despite the fact that he faces 22 rivals. The juvenile is unbeaten in three starts including when beating Cotai Glory at Newbury last time. The latter lines up in the Abbeye at Longchamp tomorrow, having unseated jockey George Baker with the race at his mercy in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last time.

There are three jumps cards tomorrow in Britain and Famousandfearless (4.30) constitutes the bet of the weekend at Uttoxeter having scrambled home at Plumpton last time against a mare (Jewellery) who finished runner up at Sedgefield over an inadequate 2m last time. The 6-y-old would not want significant rain but as long as he gets good ground he is taken to defy a 5lb rise.

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