Three reasons why...

NEWCASTLE WILL WIN

Because they have the more potent strike force

Goals win games, and in Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse, Newcastle have a pair of strikers who are more than capable of sealing Sunderland's fate.

Cisse has not trained since injuring his groin in last weekend's draw with Wolves, but the Senegal international should be fit in two days time and boasts two goals in his two home matches since joining the Magpies.

His compatriot, Ba, has been a revelation all season, and his predatory instincts should enable him to capitalise if Sunderland's back four repeat any of the errors they made at West Brom last weekend.

Given their record together already, it would be a major surprise if at least one of Newcastle's front two did not make the scoresheet on Sunday.

Because they have the potential to dominate midfield

The core of Newcastle's success this season has been the central midfield partnership between Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye, and the duo have the potential to outperform their opponents, even if Sunderland boss Martin O'Neill opts for five in midfield.

Neither player looked particularly sharp last weekend, but they were making their return from a lengthy domestic absence and should be better for having a game under their belt.

Tiote is likely to be up against Lee Cattermole, and for all the Sunderland skipper's battling qualities, the Ivorian tends to be a more dynamic performer.

Cabaye boasts the kind of vision and passing ability that is not really replicated in the red-and-white ranks, and could be Newcastle's game changer if he is given time and space in which to perform.

Because they are playing at home

Never underestimate the importance of home advantage, particularly in a derby where raucous support is guaranteed.

Newcastle have won four of the last five derbies at St James' Park, and while some of those successes can be attributed to the fact that the hosts were simply the better team, Sunderland's recent record on Tyneside is undeniably poor.

Significantly, the Magpies have been particularly strong on home soil this season, winning seven league games and losing just two.

They have learned how to press opponents high up the pitch to build pressure, a tactic that could have Sunderland on the back foot from the off.

IT WILL BE A DRAW

Because the teams are so closely matched

Generally, one team enters a Tyne-Wear derby with a marked advantage in terms of league position and recent form. That is not the case here.

Newcastle are three places above Sunderland in the Premier League table, and over the season as a whole, they have been the better team.

But that view is distorted by the radical upturn that has accompanied Martin O'Neill's arrival at the Stadium of Light. Under O'Neill, Sunderland have been in better form than their rivals.

On the whole though, there is little to choose between the two teams. Sunday's game is unlikely to be a negative stalemate, but there is every chance it will be exceptionally close.

Because a draw is never a bad result in a derby game

It is billed as the game every supporter wants to win, but in truth the derby is the game that no supporter wants to lose.

Does that transmit to the managers in the dug-out and the players on the field? Possibly. It would certainly not be a disaster for either side to leave on Sunday with a point.

For Newcastle, a draw would mean four points from this season's two derby games and nominal bragging rights through the summer.

For Sunderland, a draw would represent significant progress since August's home defeat and last season's Halloween humiliation. You suspect even O'Neill would probably take that now.

Because for once, both teams have bigger fish to fry in the remainder of the season

On Sunday, the derby will feel like the be all and end all for both clubs. Once it is over though, there will still be plenty for each side to play for.

Sunderland have an FA Cup quarter-final with Everton looming that offers the prospect of a first trip to the new Wembley, while Newcastle are eyeing European qualification via either the Europa League or, if things really go to plan, the Champions League.

Will that affect things on Sunday? It might if things are really close late on. For once, perhaps there might not be the manic urgency to secure a result that will define a season.

That is not to say that anyone will be taking their foot off the gas, but the season does not end on Sunday afternoon. Hopefully, both teams will still have bigger games to come.

SUNDERLAND WILL WIN

They have greater pace in their side

Sunderland might not boast as many natural goalscorers as Newcastle, but they have one commodity their opponents generally lack – attacking pace.

In Stephane Sessegnon and James McClean in particular, the Black Cats can call on direct attacking players who love to run at defenders with the ball at their feet.

Much of the Black Cats’ forward play this season has been based on counter-attacking, something Newcastle completely failed to cope with in their recent defeats at Fulham and Tottenham.

Last weekend, Kevin Doyle’s movement troubled Fabricio Coloccini and Mike Williamson – on the evidence of this season, Sessegnon is twice the player Doyle is.

Martin O’Neill’s tactical acumen

Under Steve Bruce, there was a sense of inevitability about the outcome of the derby, particularly if Sunderland fell behind.

Bruce’s record at making positive tactical adjustments during a game was poor, and there was never really a sense that he had a well thought out master plan for containing the Magpies.

Martin O’Neill is different, and the Black Cats boss has already hinted he has been working on some minor tactical adjustments designed specifically to exploit Newcastle’s perceived weaknesses.

Sunderland’s bench should offer a number of options to change things as the game goes on, with the likes of Nicklas Bendtner, Fraizer Campbell and David Vaughan capable of coming on to make a difference.

They are due a win on Tyneside

Not since November 2000 have Sunderland won on Tyneside, an 11-and-a-half-year stretch that has contained a number of false dawns.

That is not a run that will last forever, and the Black Cats will be buoyed by the fact that O’Neill’s arrival means they have rarely gone into an away derby in more positively.

Last weekend’s four-goal humbling was an unexpected blip, but Sunderland’s recent form is generally solid, with their away performances in providing cause for hope.

Kieran Richardson’s Stadium of Light winner buried one hoodoo in October 2008 – the club’s supporters believe it is high time to banish another.