SOMETIMES, the best way of predicting the future is by revisiting the recent past.

Last season, Newcastle kicked off their Premier League campaign at home to Tottenham, and went down to a defeat that saw them concede two goals but produce a performance full of effort and vigour that helped establish a template for the rest of the season.

Newcastle weren’t good enough to beat the majority of the top teams last term, but they were hard-working, well-organised and tightly-knit, attributes that enabled them to see off the majority of the sides around them and pull comfortably clear of the relegation zone.

Twelve months on, and it is tempting to conclude that very little has changed. The same group of players were on display on the opening day of the season – Rafael Benitez did not name a single debutant in his starting XI – and they once again suffered a narrow defeat to a Spurs side that will expect to challenge for the title this term.

For the second year running, they put up a decent show, matching their opponents for long spells and creating sufficient chances to have earned at least a point had their finishing been marginally sharper.

The qualities that were so important to Newcastle last season were still apparent, the key question over the next nine months is whether they will still be sufficient to secure survival.

At a time when their likely rivals in the bottom half of the table have been spending £30-40m on a single player, can the Magpies continue to compete when their transfer record remains the £16m that was spent to sign Michael Owen in 2005?

Saturday’s spirited display suggests it might be, but as Benitez was quick to point out in the wake of his side’s defeat, while spending money is no guarantee of success, it is the best way to try to improve the level of quality within your squad.

Newcastle won’t come up against a Dele Alli or a Christian Eriksen every week, but they will have to outperform clubs who have outspent them significantly in an attempt to sign players who can at least come close to matching Spurs’ majestic midfield duo.

“You always try to bring in better players and more quality. In this case, we have our squad, now, and if we do not have injuries, we can manage,” said Benitez, in a response than contained rather more candour than the stage-managed statement that was released on Friday.

“But to make the difference in games like this, it is sometimes that little bit of quality that makes the difference.

“We have players where they can do it sometimes, but the next step is people who can make this every single week, and that is what they have. You see someone like Eriksen, and he can make the difference in every game. Then you see Alli, (Harry) Kane – they have so many good players.

“We are talking about one of the top six. We would need to add six players where they can do it every time they walk on to the pitch. We have some players where they can do it, but we are still looking for this balance.”

Ultimately, it was those little moments of quality that settled the game. Whereas Alli dispatched a clinical back-post header to restore Tottenham’s lead after Joselu had cancelled out Jan Vertonghen’s early opener, Kenedy clumsily over-ran the ball when he raced clear in the penalty area midway through the second half.

While Newcastle’s defenders switched off entirely for both of Tottenham’s goal, along with another first-half corner that saw Davinson Sanchez flash a header narrowly wide of the upright, Vertonghen was alert enough to make the last-ditch challenge that helped divert Salomon Rondon’s second-half shot against the crossbar.

Small moments, but put them together, and you determine the outcome of a game, and eventually also a season. Newcastle will have to hope that as the campaign progresses, enough decisive moments go their way rather than in the direction of their opponents, and they could do with starting to tilt the balance quickly as they take on Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal in three of their next four games.

“We have good teams to play against,” said Benitez. “To lose (Florian) Lejeune before was not ideal, and we will have to see what happens with DeAndre (Yedlin).

“Still, the positive thing was the reaction of the team and the way we were approaching the second half. You have to take the positives and then hopefully we can build from there.

“If we play with this mentality, we will be okay. You will not always take your chances, and we were unlucky with the shots that hit the post and crossbar, and also with the control of Kenedy. It could have been totally different.

“If you ask 90 per cent of people, they will say you will lose against Tottenham. To do it in this way is not right, but at least you have the feeling that you can do better against the next team.”

There were positives to be gleaned from Saturday’s display, most notably the continued influence of Jonjo Shelvey at the heart of midfield, the mazy dribbling that enabled Kenedy to ghost past his opponents seemingly at will and the bright second-half performances delivered by debutants Rondon and Yoshinori Muto.

Rondon did not quite look razor sharp, but he was aggressive, physically imposing and unfortunate with the shot that ricocheted off the bar. Muto was bright and industrious cutting in from the left-hand side, and should offer a level of attacking inventiveness that Newcastle have occasionally lacked.

Both players should improve markedly once their acclimatisation process is complete, and it will be interesting to see whether Benitez opts to start either in this weekend’s game at Cardiff City.

“I could see that maybe we were right not playing them from the beginning because you could see that they didn’t quite have the right understanding with their team-mates and maybe the fitness was not quite what you were expecting,” said the Newcastle boss.

“At the same time, that is normal though because they came late during the transfer window. That is why it is better to do things quickly because you have the players ready and you can work with them.

“In this case, I am happy with their effort and movement and a lot of things, but still you can see that the understanding with the rest of the team-mates is not quite there.”