A GROUP of protestors was demonstrating the other day, wearing William Hague face-masks. One of them even tried to shake hands with the real William Hague, a moment captured on television, but largely ignored by the newspapers.

One Labour tabloid did finally run the story, claiming it had been prompted to do so by Michael Portillo's press secretary. If this were true, it was a clear attempt to humiliate the Tory leader, a man selected for the post by the party, not the public.

This sort of internal pressure is part and parcel of the job when you are party leader, whether you are in Government or opposition. Nine out of ten leaders end up leaving under a cloud. Michael Foot did and so did Neil Kinnock after Labour failed to get elected in 1992. The Conservatives are even more ruthless. John Major was badly let down by his party and look at how they got rid of Margaret Thatcher. Then there was Ted Heath, Sir Alec Douglas Home and Harold Macmillan. All leaders invariably have this thing in common - they are finally ousted from power. It's a bit like being a football manager, you are safe while your team is winning.

For a long time there have been suggestions that Michael Portillo will be a future leader of the Conservative Party, and may be he will. But if it is true that his press secretary was behind the demonstration story getting into the newspaper, it goes way outside the rules, especially so close to a General Election.

The pundits are suggesting that Labour is well ahead in the polls at the moment. But the way I see it, there is a lot of water to go under the bridge in the next four weeks. I think the Government was right to postpone the election in May because of the foot-and-mouth outbreak. Now the disease is no longer escalating, I think Labour has played the popular card.

The BBC's Newsnight is planning to travel the length of the country to listen to the public rather than the politicians, which is an interesting concept. As they travel down the country, through the various constituencies, I have no doubt that they will drop off in Hartlepool. This constituency reminds me of the situation at the last election with Michael Portillo's seat. He was expected to win but didn't, which was embarrassing for him and the party. I don't think Tony Blair will allow a "Portillo" to take place in Hartlepool and I believe Labour will invest all its resources into the election campaign to make sure it keeps the seat. But it will be an interesting fight. We haven't had all the nominations yet and I understand there are more to come. The more people who stand, the more the vote will be split and we could see a real upset.

It's going to be a very complex election. There are a lot of marginals, seats which the Tories lost at the last election through the protest vote, constituencies which are traditionally Conservative, and I believe some of which will be won back, because people this time will vote with their heads, not their hearts.

The LibDems say they are going to fight the election from a position of honesty, following this up with the fact they would put taxes up to pay for services. Party leader Charles Kennedy says he expects to win more votes and seats and it wouldn't surprise me if his predictions came true.

When you look at all the party leaders, it seems to me that they are the best people for the job at the moment. They have each brought harmony to their parties against a difficult background. But I think they can all expect to lose and win seats they would not expect.

What will be interesting will be the aftermath of the General Election. Whichever party wins will have its work cut out endearing itself to a population disenchanted with politicians. Whichever loses can expect to see a change of leadership.

Published: 10/05/2001