As George Carey announces his decision to retire, Nick Morrison looks at the ups and downs of his tenure as Archbishop of Canterbury, and the challenges facing his successor.

"THE Church, as it now stands, no human power can save." Hit by falling attendances, riven by deep divisions over women priests, gay clergy and theology itself, and led by someone accused of making little public impact, it seems to be an appropriate remark on the state of the Church of England.

In fact, this observation was made more than 150 years ago, by the celebrated headmaster of Rugby School, Thomas Arnold. But it illustrates the perpetual challenge facing the leader of the Anglican Communion. And yesterday, Dr George Carey revealed he had decided to end his grapple with this challenge, stepping down as Archbishop of Canterbury in October after 11-and-a-half years in the post.

His time in office has been marked by substantial upheaval in the church, and he has attracted considerable criticism over his failure to make the same public impression as his predecessor, Robert Runcie. But history may come to judge him a little more kindly, according to Dr Joseph Cassidy, theologian and principal of St Chad's College in Durham.

"I would not be surprised if people looked back fondly on him in a few years time, and I'm sure we will come to appreciate what he has done," he says. "He had a difficult time holding the church together over the ordination of women priests."

The 1992 General Synod vote in favour of women priests was widely predicted to lead to mass defections from the church. Some people did leave, but a compromise which allowed opponents to exist alongside supporters of the move was credited with limiting the number of departures. And, although the compromise was not Dr Carey's idea, he can be credited with having the vision to allow others to take the lead.

He was also dogged by having to follow a well-respected and well-loved Archbishop in Robert Runcie, whose opposition to some of the policies of the Conservative government in the 1980s gave him a ready public platform.

'Robert Runcie appealed to people's hearts. He was a quiet man, very much a diplomat," says Dr Cassidy. "Archbishop Carey is much more of a doer, much more of a manager, interested in reforming the structures of the church.

"He doesn't quite get the press coverage that Robert Runcie did, but then people are less interested in what church leaders have to say now, and I don't know that he has the kind of charisma that makes him easily quotable."

But behind Dr Carey's public image is a warm and funny man, according to Dr Ruth Etchells, a former principal of St John's College in Durham, who got to know the Archbishop while he was vicar of St Nicholas' Church in Durham, from 1975-82, acting as his consultant during the Lambeth Conference of 1998.

"He is not a natural sound-biter. He can hold his own in debate, but what he is not good at is quick wit and repartee," she says. "He sometimes comes across as slightly plodding and earnest, and he is a very serious man with a strong intellect, but he has got a lovely, warm sense of humour."

Dr Etchells, who sat on the Crown Appointments Commission which recommended Dr Carey for the job of Archbishop in 1990, says their decision to put forward the then Bishop of Bath and Wells was unanimous.

"The message we were getting was that, above everything else, they wanted a man of prayer, and, if possible, not too establishment a figure," she says. "They also wanted somebody who was good at management, and knew how to preach.

"The greatest contribution he has made has been his sheer goodness, and it is that that has won him deep respect, even if there are some in the media who don't really go for him."

Dr Carey, who retires shortly before his 67th birthday, three years before the compulsory retirement age, came to the job as an evangelical, but straight away made it clear he wanted to serve the whole church and not just one of its groups. And he has also worked on relations with the Roman Catholic Church, put under stress by the decision to ordain women priests.

As head of the Anglican Communion, with an estimated 70m members worldwide, he has also helped to maintain bridges between the more liberal bishops in North America and the more orthodox bishops of Africa. But the strain between these two wings will face his successor, says the Bishop Stephen Sykes, principal of St John's College in Durham and professor of theology.

Demands for women to be appointed as bishops will grow stronger, and there will also be relationships with other churches to consider, he says. "I think just helping the church in England to achieve a sense of public confidence is probably the biggest issue.

"The church needs to show that it knows what it is doing, and is delivering something important for the life of the nation, and it can address the major issues with competence and authority. The new person has to show he has a thorough knowledge of our complex and divided society, and a capacity to address it and speak relevantly to it, with calm authority. I put holiness very high up on my list of qualities in a new Archbishop. Prayer is a high priority."

But simply keeping the church together will be no easy task for the new Archbishop, according to Dr Cassidy. "The fractures are worldwide in the Church of England, on sexuality especially, but also on women," he says.

"There is the question of whether the church is willing to bless homosexual marriages, and whether it is happy to have homosexual clergy who are sexually active. It will come to a head, although it is a problem the church doesn't know how to solve."

Despite these internal difficulties, Dr Carey's successor will face pressure to unite with the Methodist Church, as well as early moves towards a reunion with the Roman Catholic Church, Dr Cassidy says. "The biggest task on the horizon will be making sure that the reunion with Methodism goes ahead," he says. "And I would be disappointed if there was not a reunion with Rome within the next 30 years."

Financial problems also threaten to assail the new Archbishop, leading to pressure to reduce the number of clergy, as well as reverse the trend in declining Sunday congregations, and how best to deploy the remaining clergy.

And the issue of the Church of England's role in society is likely to come to the fore as never before, particularly if there is a new monarch during the next Archbishop's tenure, according to Dr Etchells.

"I think it has got to be somebody who has got energy, and great openness, somebody with a rock-solid knowledge of God and a prayerful life," she says. "It has got to be somebody who is good with people, and you need someone who can relate to every level of society. And it has got to be somebody who can perceive the signs of the times, and respond to them."

But, despite the immense difficulties which will confront the new primate of the Church of England, and however important it is to get the appointment right, there is reason to believe the church will go on, says Bishop Sykes. "For the last 200 years or so, every ten years it has been confidently asserted that the church is in a state of unprecedented crisis," he says. "Not all of these predictions can be true."