The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold for the fifth month in a row when it meets later this week.

Economists are predicting that the next movement will be upwards with City analysts pencilling in June or August for a possible rise, though some think it could come as early as May if retail sales figures remain strong.

In February retail sales figures showed the sharpest month-on-month increase for two years, as low interest rates boosted consumer spending.

The British Bankers' Association said unsecured borrowing by consumers rose at a record rate last month to reach £80.9bn.

However, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee is thought to be unlikely to raise rates to curb consumer spending.

Governor of the Bank of England Sir Edward George recently said it was quite likely that consumer spending growth would moderate of its own accord in the next few months, as a result of rising unemployment and a build-up of household debt.

Ross Walker, economist at The Royal Bank of Scotland, said that while recent economic data and survey evidence suggested the manufacturing sector was through the worst following September 11, the recovery was likely to be gradual, and the rates were unlikely to rise until the economy looked to be on a more assured recovery path.

Philip Shaw, economist at Investec bank, agreed that the next movement in interest rates was likely to be up and John Butler, economist at HSBC, also predicted rates would remain on hold this time, but said that another very strong retail sales number in March, and a bounce in industrial production could lead to a hike in rates as early as May.

The bank will announce its decision at midday on Thursday.

It last moved interest rates in November, when it cutthem by 0.5 per cent, to reduce them to their lowest level for nearly 40 years.