NOW we know that the fate of Prime Minister Tony Blair will be settled at the end of January.

With the vote on top-up fees followed immediately by the release of the Hutton report, bookmakers believe there is a 20-1 to chance that we will be looking for a new prime minister come February 1.

The irony of this is that for most of his political life, Mr Blair has been routinely criticised trying to be all things to all people, of saying only what people want to hear. People said that he believed in nothing, that he couldn't make a decision without checking which way the wind was blowing.

But his fate may be sealed because he nailed his colours firmly to the mast and took the two most vivid decisions of his career.

He chose to take the country into an unattractive war when it would have been easier to sit on the fence with the French and do nothing; he has chosen to make an unattractive decision to solve the very difficult problem surrounding university funding when it would have been easier to brush it under the carpet and hope it would go away.

It would be strange, indeed, if Mr Blair lost his job over top-up fees because, although in principle they are unpalatable, in practice it may well be that they are the fairest way forward.

And, it would be equally strange if he were to lose his job over the leaking of the name of Dr David Kelly because Dr Kelly's name probably needed to be in the public domain as he had such earth-shattering claims to make.

The final irony is that whereas the reasons for the death of Dr Kelly are very arguable - the Government, the BBC and Dr Kelly himself are all involved - the reason for the death of Sergeant Steve Roberts appears quite obvious.

Tory leader Michael Howard said yesterday: ''I do not think there is any greater dereliction of duty for any government than to send men into battle without the proper equipment."

Quite. Someone somewhere in the military hierachy or the Government has to be held responsible.