Hollywood's finest may be keenly anticipating the Oscar nominations on Tuesday but, as Steve Pratt reports, the real drama this year has been taking place off-screen.

And this year's Academy Award for best drama goes to... Hollywood itself. Movie industry chiefs must take the prize for getting themselves into a real mess in the months leading up to the announcement of the Oscar nominations.

Events have been more dramatic than anything in The Lord Of The Rings trilogy. Not that the public will have noticed too much difference from previous years as studios and producers vied to put their movies and actors ahead of the pack in the run-up to the shortlist being named.

The controversy has been confined mainly within the industry and trade papers, but the effect could cause major upsets at the 76th Academy Awards ceremony.

A date change was the first problem. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to move the presentations forward to late February from their usual late March slot.

This left a smaller window of opportunity for the campaigning. Let there be no doubt that attempts to win the gold-plated statuettes are as serious a business as any presidential campaign. The rewards in increased box office business for a film and a pay boost for a performer are worth a lot.

Imagine the panic when, not only the date, but the rules were changed. The drama became a crisis after the Motion Picture Association of America announced member studios wouldn't be allowed to send out VHS or DVD copies of movies - known as screeners - to the Academy's 6,000 or so voters.

Sending out copies of films is a major way that studios have to ensure voters actually see movies instead of just putting a cross next to any title that takes their fancy.

The lack of screeners wasn't a problem for big movies that play in multiplexes across the country. Voters could see them at public screenings or special viewings provided by distributors.

The independents, who lack both the large numbers of prints and big publicity budgets of the studios, feared their films wouldn't have a fair chance of being widely seen and not enough voters would know about them.

Actors and film critics joined in protests at the MPAA decision, taken to try to combat screeners turning up for sale on the black market or the Internet. The industry is alarmed at the loss of revenue through pirate copies of movies.

Extraordinary security measures are taken to prevent blockbusters being copied illegally before release. Those attending previews of the final part of The Lord Of The Rings trilogy in London, for instance, were subjected to airport-style electronic security measures. Mobile phones and recording devices were banned from the auditorium.

The screeners ban ended up in court, with the MPAA agreeing a compromise that allowed studios to send out tapes to Academy members only.

The association did have the opportunity to say "I told you so" when illegal copies of four Oscar screener tapes turned up on the Internet. The FBI traced the source back to a member of the Academy's actors' branch.

This row added to the difficulty over the calendar shift, decided on partly to try to stem declining TV ratings for the Oscars ceremony broadcast and to take the shine off the multitude of prize-givings in the early part of the year.

Some movies considered potential winners opened earlier than usual to allow more time to sink into voters' consciousness before the end of the year deadline for entries.

High profile Oscars hopefuls such as Nicole Kidman, Johnny Depp, Bill Murray, Scarlett Johansson and Russell Crowe could only look on as the behind-the-scenes voting dilemma unfolded. They were reduced to mere extras in the drama. As US film magazine Premiere noted: "All this administrative drama has nearly overshadowed the actual Oscar races, which offer several compelling storylines."

Top of the list is the so far scandalously ignored The Lord Of The Rings trilogy. The previous two pictures have only been recognised in the technical categories. Many feel that this will be director Peter Jackson's year. He certainly deserves a best director Oscar for doing what many considered impossible and bringing Tolkien's fantasy to the screen.

It'll be interesting to see how the movie does in the Golden Globes this weekend, always considered an indication of how Oscar might vote.

Expect strong competition from previous winner Clint Eastwood, back on form behind the camera in Mystic River. Anthony Minghella, a winner for The English Patient, is another favourite for his latest literary adaptation Cold Mountain. With 13 nominations, this American Civil War drama already leads the pack for the Baftas, the British Oscars.

Peter Weir, for naval drama Master And Commander, might be in contention, along with Gary Ross for his solidly-crafted racing horse drama Seabiscuit.

Sofia Coppola could be the sole female nominee - and only the third woman ever - for Lost In Translation in the best director category.

The massive box office - with The Return Of The King taking more money than either of the previous two Hobbit adventures - will appeal to voters and ensure a best picture nod, too.

Mystic River, already a winner in various pre-Oscar awards, and Cold Mountain are the main competition. Tim Burton's latest oddity Big Fish, with Albert Finney as a teller of tall tales, is an outside bet, along with Seabiscuit and Lost In Translation.

Current form suggests organisers should hand the best actor Oscar to Bill Murray, in his comeback role playing an actor in Tokyo to shoot a whisky commercial in Lost In Translation. He's gone home with most of the already-announced awards.

His strongest competition comes from Sean Penn, who's in with a double chance - as the father of a murdered girl in Mystic River and as a college professor in 21 Grams.

Jude Law for Cold Mountain, Russell Crowe for Master And Commander and Ben Kingsley for House Of Sand And Fog are possible nominees, too.

A pity that voters don't favour comic performers, or Johnny Depp would be the obvious choice for his outrageous turn as Captain Jack Sparrow in The Pirates Of The Caribbean.

Nineteen-year-old Scarlett Johansson has collected two best actress Bafta nominations, but won't be as lucky at the Oscars. She's being touted for best actress for Girl With A Pearl Earring and best supporting actress for Lost In Translation (although most would view hers as a leading role).

Cate Blanchett could be up for either kidnap drama The Missing or Veronica Guerin, as the real life Irish investigative reporter.

Previous Oscar winner Nicole Kidman could find favour for Cold Mountain (although Bafta voters omitted her from their list), but another award holder, Gwyneth Paltrow, is unlikely to get the nod as tragic poet Sylvia Plath in bio-pic Sylvia.

A good bet is Charlize Theron because she's done what many attractive actresses have done to turn voters' heads - look awful. She's turned ugly as serial killer Aileen Wuornos in Monster. Other names to watch for are Naomi Watts (for 21 Grams), Diane Keaton (for Something's Gotta Give) and Samantha Morton (for In America).

In the best supporting categories there are high hopes for Albert Finney, as the dying father in Big Fish, and Holly Hunter, as the mother of a rebellious daughter, in teen drama Thirteen. Both have taken home Oscars in previous years.

Surprisingly, Renee Zellwegger is being talked about as best supporting actress. She's already a Bafta nominee. Quite how anyone can take her seriously with her Beverly Hillbillies look and Calamity Jane accent is beyond me.

* The Academy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday and the Oscar presentations take place in Los Angeles on February 29.

* The Golden Globes are announced tomorrow.

* The Baftas take place at the Odeon in London's Leicester Square on February 15.