UNDERSTANDABLY, there is a degree of suspicion over the Chancellor's forecasts in his spending review.

Gordon Brown is painting a rosy picture for the future.

He is assuming the economy will remain on track, unemployment will remain low and that there will be reduced demand for benefits.

He is also assuming that he can save billions of pounds by getting rid of 100,000 civil service jobs, and still maintain efficiency.

As a result, he is outlining a golden scenario over the next few years, of increased spending on frontline public services without increased taxation.

Viewed in strictly economic terms, there is some scepticism of Mr Brown's outlook.

In political terms, however, his judgement is more sound.

The Conservatives, ardent supporters of cutting red tape, bureaucracy and waste, are in no position to criticise the loss of civil servants.

It is a brutal fact of life that, while there will be howls of protests about the loss of jobs in manufacturing, few people will be prompted to march in the streets for the sake of civil servants.

And Mr Brown's initiative to transfer government departments out of London and the South-East is a cause for celebration, not condemnation, in regions like ours.

Predictably, therefore, the Conservatives are concentrating their opposition on Mr Brown's sums. They don't add up, say the Tories, and taxes will have to rise steeply if Labour wins a third term.

The challenge for the Conservatives will be to achieve support for their nightmare scenario, against Mr Brown's golden alternative.

In his seven years as Chancellor, Mr Brown's forecasts on the key economic indicators have been more accurate than both the experts and his critics.

He has transformed Labour from a party with a reputation for fiscal mismanagement, to a party with economic policies to trust.

It is a sad fact of life for the Tories, that if the next election is fought on the economy alone, then it looks like Labour will win hands down.