THERE is only one man who could be confidently expected to deliver a by-election victory for Labour in Hartlepool - Ray Mallon.

It is several years since Mr Mallon made his name as a zero tolerance police officer in Hartlepool, but he retains significant grass roots respect in the town.

It is no secret that he has been courted in the past by the Labour Party and it is no secret that he was within an ace of standing as an independent candidate in Hartlepool at the last General Election.

It is our view that he would be a comfortable winner this time round in Hartlepool. The problem is that he is the elected Mayor of Middlesbrough, having defeated the official Labour candidate and - much as he is surely tempted by Parliamentary ambition - jumping ship in mid-stream is not his style.

That leaves Labour with a headache which Tony Blair must have known he would induce when he granted Mr Mandelson his wish by appointing him European Commissioner.

The Prime Minister has carried a debt to the former Northern Ireland Secretary since sacking him over the Hinduja passport affair, only for Mr Mandelson to be subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing.

But the repayment of that debt is a gamble for Mr Blair unless a strong enough candidate for Hartlepool can be found, with a balance of local connections, political experience and public appeal.

With Mr Mallon expected to rule himself out because of his allegiance to Middlesbrough, Mr Blair's gamble in finding a winning replacement for Mr Mandelson looks increasingly risky, particularly with a flamboyant opponent like Robert Kilroy-Silk waiting in the wings for the UK Independence Party.