THE leader of the UK Independence Party has been in Hartlepool to oversee the final week of campaigning.

Roger Knapman, a former Government minister, is boldly predicting a shock result for candidate Stephen Allison.

Mr Knapman, who served under Conservative prime ministers between 1987 and 1997, became UKIP leader in 2002 following two years as a political advisor for the party.

He has overseen the party's Euro MP numbers grow from three to 12 - including former chat show host Robert Kilroy Silk, who was elected in June - and is now setting his sights on the first member in the House of Commons.

Mr Knapman admitted it was an achievement to retain the £50,000 deposit in the London Assembly polls by scraping together an 8.18 per cent share of the votes.

Now he is forecasting a startlingly different result in Hartlepool, where the party managed a near-20 per cent share during the council and European elections in June.

"We are going to do better than ever before," said Mr Knapman. "I see no reason at all why we shouldn't do as well as we did in the European elections, which was second.

"It is only a few weeks since people voted for us in such huge numbers, and for the by-election we have a splendid local candidate.

"We have the best candidate, the best showing in the most recent election, and, therefore, we are the obvious challenge to the Labour Party, who are in disarray following Peter Mandelson's departure."

The by-election has been prompted by Labour MP Mr Mandelson's promotion to Brussels to act as the European Commissioner for the UK.

Fourteen candidates are contesting the seat, which Mr Mandelson held with a 14,571 majority in 2001.

They are: Edward Abrams (English Democrats); Stephen Allison (UK Independence Party); Philip Berriman (Independent); John Bloom (Respect); Ronnie Carroll (Independent); Jody Dunn (Liberal Democrat); Paul Watson (Fathers 4 Justice); Christopher Herriot (Socialist Labour Party); Alan Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party); Jeremy Middleton (Conservative); Richard Rodgers (The Common Good); Iris Ryder (Green Party); James Starkey (National Front) and Iain Wright (Labour).

Five candidates from the major parties took part in a Question Time-style debate organised by Hartlepool Community Network on Thursday night. Mr Allison, Mr Bloom, Mrs Dunn, Mr Middleton and Mr Wright answered questions on subjects ranging from the war in Iraq and voluntary sector help to law and order and the environment.