NATIONALLY, 70 per cent of seats at a general election do not change hands. In the North-East and North Yorkshire, that figure is even higher: in 2015, of the 37 seats that The Northern Echo watches over, only two changed political hue.

This is because of the almost tribal nature of local politics: bright red in the former industrial constituencies north of the Tees; deep blue in the country, agricultural areas of North Yorkshire.

Stockton South, though, spans the river. It has a foot in either camp, and is the area’s only true marginal. It is the battleground. The Conservatives defend a painfully thin majority of just 332 – the 17th smallest in the country. Whoever wins here will be the largest party in the new parliament.

Beyond Stockton South, there are other seats with much at stake, particularly the two seats held by the Liberal Democrats.

One of the greatest surprises in 2010 was that Redcar, concerned by the threat to the steelworks, rejected Labour MP, Vera Baird, and returned Ian Swales, a candidate with impeccable local connections, with a 5,214 majority. Now Mr Swales is standing down and Labour, having held the seat since it was created in 1974, really should re-take it.

Yet the local party is in turmoil, with ten councillors, including the council leader, quitting. This turmoil is unsettling the neighbouring seat, the traditionally marginal Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland where Tom Blenkinsop only has a 1,677 majority, but in Redcar it has encouraged the Saltburn-born president of the RMT union, Peter Pinkney, to stand for the Green Party. He claims that the Greens are now the party of the workers – is it possible that he will split the leftish vote and prevent Labour’s Anna Turley from re-claiming Redcar?

Further north, the LibDem seat of Berwick will probably also change hands. It has been held by Alan Beith since 1973, when the Conservatives lost it when their MP, the former Earl of Durham, was caught in a call-girl scandal. After 42 years, is it time for the Northumbrians to return to the Tory fold?

The expected collapse of the LibDem vote, partly caused by the U-turn over student tuition fees, means, though, that the election spotlight is unlikely to shine as brightly on Durham City. In 2010, with a strong local candidate, the LibDems were so hopeful of stealing the seat from Labour that Palace Green was the last stop on Nick Clegg’s eve-of-poll tour. But Roberta Blackman-Woods secured a 3,000 majority and, in the world of academia, that may, after 30 years of trying, be the highwater mark of the Liberals.

The other County Durham seats look likely to return Labour. Darlington has the smallest majority – 3, 388 – and there may be some independents standing in the simultaneous council elections to remind the party that it doesn’t own the town, while over at Hartlepool – majority 5,509 – Iain Wright faces a fight with Ukip. This is the anti-EU party’s top target in the region, with a sceptical coastal demographic and also a burning local issue in the state of the town’s hospital.

Crossing the Tees, there are rumblings in the sea of blue. In Thirsk and Malton, Anne McIntosh, the Conservative MP since 1997 has been deselected after a long, bitter in-fight, and so North Yorkshire is unlikely to have even one female face representing it in the new Parliament.

And as William Hague leaves Richmond, there is some disquiet that the Conservative candidate, Rishi Sunak, has been “shoe-horned in by central office”. There will be several independents standing, but as Mr Hague’s majority was 23,336, it is unthinkable that Richmond will be anything other than blue – just as, for all the other fancy colours on offer, Durham over the water, will be anything other than red.

Only Stockton South really stands out.