A vote against Hillary

AS senior lecturer in American History, Dr Kevin Yuill has followed the US election campaign trail over the last several months, analysing its every twist and turn.

And as the country went to polls for most divisive election in living memory, he predicted with confidence that Hillary Clinton was 90 per cent certain to clinch the presidency.

The University of Sunderland academic confesses he was shocked as many others were, when the stark reality of Donald Trump winning the keys to the Oval Office began to sink in.

But, with the dust still settling from the shift in tectonic plates of US politics, he holds out the hope, however forlorn, that things could be better than thought.

He says: “I got it wrong like so many other people and that I think one of the things that have learned we cannot trust pollsters any more.

“I was little bit shocked. I think it is a less frightening prospect that many people are saying... at the moment.

“There is a little bit of hysteria, both registered in the markets and amongst many people, about what a Trump presidency will mean.

“I noticed he was very ameliorative in his acceptance speech and I suspect he is the type of guy that will do anything to win and be as dirty and lie and whatever, which is what he has done effectively – and once he has won he’s going to behave differently.

“This is what I hope anyway – it might be a forlorn hope.”

Trump will remembered for many outrageous remarks, among other calling for the “total shutdown” on Muslims entering the US, his pledge to build a wall along the border with Mexico, threatening to jail Clinton and vowing to rip up international trade deals.

Dr Yuill says: “I think he saw (in the polls) he was more successful the more outrageous he was.

“When they spoke to ordinary Americans they said “I disagree what he said about this, but I like the fact that he’s saying it”. And I think once he got that, he suddenly used it to his great advantage.”

The real lesson people will learn from the election is that people “really hate the establishment”.

“People are desperate for change,” he says. “And they didn’t vote against Hillary Clinton, because she is a woman and they didn’t vote against her for (my least-liked term of this thing) “whitelash”.

“I don’t think it’s got anything to do with “whitelash”, because it’s the same people (who voted for Trump) that voted for Barack Obama in 2008. So I don’t it’s a big racist attack or misogynist. I think it’s really a hatred of the Clintons and the whole legacy of the past and the chummy club of people that seem to rule over the United States “And so it is a vote against Hillary Clinton, more than it’s a vote for Donald Trump.”

The US vote had resonances with the UK’s Brexit vote, with Trump pitching his campaign as “Brexit-plus-plus-plus”.

Dr Yuill says: “If I was in an EU office in Belgium I would be a little bit worried with this result, because they like to think that Brexit was a peculiarity of the British – this sort of anti-establishment vote that was registered in Brexit.

“But it is now in the most powerful country in the world where it has also been registered.”

Dr Yuill says while some could see positive aspects of the Brexit vote (depending on which side of the argument they are), in that it denotes for something, he cannot see many positive aspects of a Trump presidency.

“I can’t see that anybody is voting for anything. I doubt they are really voting for a wall against Mexico, because everyone knows that is not going to happen. I think it’s more a negative vote if anything – the Trump election,” he argues.

On the world stage, Dr Yuill sees Trump speeding up trends away from institutions like Nato “a leftover from the Cold War”, but he does not believe the US position with relation to Russia will change radically.

Noting President Putin’s warming to Trump, he says: “It does help when two leaders get along. Maybe that will see some of the rhetoric, which I thinks was dangerous rhetoric both around Ukraine and Syria. Hopefully we’ll see some of the rhetoric simmering down and relations with Russia will improve.”

Dr Yuill derides as “infantile silliness” the “junior common room politics” seen in the UK, where some politicians want to prevent Trump from visiting the country.

“This is the leader of the most powerful country in the world and you can’t say we’re not going to welcome you in our country. Parliament is really going to have to rethink its position towards Trump and I think you’ll see some people eating their words.”

Asked if Trump’s views may become more tempered, Dr Yuill says: “All we take is his acceptance speech, so far. But I suspect he will be.

“He has to deal with Republicans in Congress who were very hostile to him. Don’t forget he did not get the blessing of the last republican candidate Mitt Romney and he lacks backing from most of the senior Republicans, so this is problematic for him.

“I think he is going to reach out. He already has to Hillary Clinton. I would like to think he is going to grow up in office.

“That’s my hope. I no longer make predictions.”