WITH less than a month to go before the European elections, the UK Independence Party (Ukip) looks to be on course for a record-breaking result.

If the opinion polls are correct, it may even win the largest share of the vote for the European Parliament – a remarkable feat for a party with no MPs.

Even if Nigel Farage’s party falls short, Ukip is certain to push the Tories into third place, a result that will stoke the anxieties of Tories who fear it will steal Conservative votes in the General Election next year.

Ukip’s membership has passed 36,000 – only about 8,000 behind the Liberal Democrats – and it is on course to overtake Nick Clegg’s junior coalition party.

Ukip has become the anti-politics party.

Its popularity stems from the damage done by the MPs’ expenses scandal, which perpetuated the idea that mainstream parties are a wealthy out-of-touch elite who sit in judgement in Westminster. The demonisation of former Culture Secretary Maria Miller this month showed that the public are still not in a forgiving mood.

Mr Farage, on the other hand, can seemingly do no wrong. He praises Vladimir Putin, describes Russian policy on Syria as “brilliant” and accuses the EU of having “blood on its hands” over Ukraine. Yet his supporters just laugh it off.

Although his father was a stockbroker and he is a former City trader, Mr Farage has rare “man of the people” appeal. He is the beer-drinking, cigar-smoking rogue threatening to upset the cosy Westminster clique.Yesterday’s row over Ukip’s posters will be water off a duck’s back. Critics say they are racist, Mr Farage prefers to call them a “hard-hitting reflection of reality”.

The only thing that could seriously upset the apple cart would be the discovery that Mr Farage may be no different to other politicians. He faces an EU investigation into the use of funds spent on his constituency office – a headquarters allegedly supplied rent-free.

The result – good or bad – will come too late to have an effect on the Euro elections, but it could have profound consequences for Mr Farage, the party he leads and the 2015 General Election.