CONFIDENCE is everything in business. Pre-Brexit a majority of business commentators lined up behind David Cameron and George Osborne to predict imminent recession if we turned our backs on Europe.

The Northern Echo, too, feared a collapse in business confidence and a slow down in the economy.

It seems only fair then to admit that, three months since the Leave vote, the UK’s economy continues to defy the worst predictions and there is, as yet, no sign of a recession.

Yesterday, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development became the latest think-tank to revise its growth forecast for the British economy just months after warning of a Brexit shock.

The experts failed to factor the public’s appetite for Brexit into their equations and a strong belief that, in the long-term, the country will be better off by leaving the EU.

Since then, consumers have simply ignored the warnings and carried on spending. Confidence has remained high.

The weaker pound has helped boost British exports, and the downside – more expensive imports – is only just being felt in the shops.

Even Government borrowing has been lower than expected, handing new Chanceller Philip Hammond an unexpected Brexit bonus as he prepares for his first autumn statement.

Of course, these are early days. Much will depend on the kind of deal the Government negotiates with our erstwhile EU partners and how much access businesses will have to the single market when we do eventually leave.

That is going to be a huge challenge for Theresa May and her ministers but, so far, the new Prime Minister has looked unflappable.

The real problem with business confidence is its fragility. The slightest thing can trigger a market panic.

But so far so good.