NOW the local elections are out the way, we can focus once again on everyone’s favourite vote, the EU referendum. Nicola Sturgeon’s success with the Scottish National Party and the surprising rise of the Scottish Tories provided a welcome distraction from the ever rumbling Brexit question, writes Jeffrey Ball.

I wrote about the case for Brexit back in February being ‘hokey cokey’. Back then, my conclusion was that it is a murky case either way and issues like immigration will have more of a bearing than is arguably fair.

Fast forward to now and the economic point of view has not changed. A UK Brexit is likely to have either have no effect on the pound and interest rates or be negative. It is hard to see a positive impact. You would expect this to hold down bond yields, given they are linked to interest rates, which is therefore supportive for equities.

The pound has been weak since the referendum was announced, and it would be fair to say that Brexit is one of those causes But the currency market looks much wider than one issue at a time.

Part of this logic is we are still a while away. Even more so than the stock market, the currency market tends to focus on more immediate issues.

The media too, likes to attribute political issues and risks to the market for causing any movements. As I have said before, markets are not so easily distracted by politics. If they were, it would be much easier for investors to beat the market.

Uncertainty is the buzzword we keep using. Markets hate uncertainty, or more accurately, things that could have a meaningful and likely impact. As it stands, the polls and research have left the market relatively agnostic towards the chances of Brexit, typically putting the chances at about 30%.

You may expect a market to oscillate wildly on that basis but with virtually no known implications of Brexit, it is hard to react when you don’t know what you are reacting to.

If it did happen, then there would be a two year negotiation over the shape of our future membership. Who would lead these negotiations? Could it be concluded within the two years?

If we consider the aspirations of the leave campaign to negotiate new bilateral arrangements with the EU and other trading partners, there is a good chance we will get to the end of the two year period with a deal not concluded and the UK having left the EU but remaining a member of the EEA (European Economic Area).

Headlines have been shouting that the Brexit debate makes things uncertain for investors, that foreign investors will abandon the UK, the pound will collapse and foreign investors will abandon gilts. With a 70% chance of remaining, we think this is unlikely.

Whoever David Cameron’s successor is, the end game is likely to be membership to the EEA as they will not want to jeopardise the important access to the European Free Trade Area that we have.

If achieving more control of the UK borders requires any concessions on trade at all, you would expect any decisions about this could be deferred until the 2020 election, which would allow the main parties to campaign on their vision for the UK’s new relationship with the EU.

This is barely scraping the barrel of issues, which is part of the problem. We will hopefully continue to wade through the various implications and voting day gets closer. Our message remains the same.

Don’t believe the hype that Brexit is the sole factor determining every movement in markets and economies. Markets are complicated and for all the knee jerk reactions we seem to hear about, underlying all the noise is a solid case built upon the many factors that continue to influence the markets. By positioning investment portfolios accordingly, investors should be able to take advantage of this calmer, more disciplined approach.

Jeffrey Ball is an assistant director at Newcastle-based Brewin Dolphin. The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily the views held throughout Brewin Dolphin. No director, representative or employee of Brewin Dolphin accepts liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document or its contents. Any tax allowances or thresholds mentioned are based on personal circumstances and current legislation which is subject to change.