FOOTBALL has a funny way of scuppering even the best-laid plans. At the start of Wednesday morning, Brighton’s board would have basking in the glory of their club’s best-ever start to a Premier League season. By lunchtime, however, they were contemplating having to start looking for a new manager. Talk about a bit of a comedown.

Thomas Tuchel’s departure from Chelsea came somewhat out of the blue, but it did not take long for Brighton to be caught up in the backwash. With Graham Potter seemingly set for Stamford Bridge, the patient work overseen by the current Brighton boss at the Amex Stadium in the last few seasons is in danger of being undone. As quickly as things improve, so they can just as rapidly be ripped apart.

All of which brings us to Eddie Howe’s position at Newcastle United. Howe was not touted as a contender for the Chelsea job – Potter and Mauricio Pochettino appear to have been the only serious candidates – but that is not to say that the Magpies are not vulnerable when it comes to a sudden turn of events potentially leading to the loss of their manager.

Despite his achievements with both Bournemouth and Newcastle, I struggle to see Howe being offered a job at one of the established ‘big six’ in the next few years. Outside of those elite clubs, there is surely no other job that would tempt him away from St James’ Park? Or is there? I’d argue that there is, but that it won’t come from within the Premier League. If Newcastle are to lose Howe anytime soon, I’ve got a funny feeling it might well be to England.

Gareth Southgate’s contract as England boss runs to the end of 2024, so in theory, he should remain in position for both this summer’s World Cup and the next European Championships, which are due to be staged in Germany in two years’ time. There are two potential scenarios in which that could change though, both revolving around this winter’s World Cup.

Imagine England were to flop in Qatar, perhaps failing to get out of a group featuring Iran, the United States and Wales or maybe coming a cropper in their first knockout fixture after limping through the group stage. There were calls for Southgate’s head in the wake of England’s Nations League humiliation at the hands of Hungary this summer, and they would unquestionably become much more vociferous if England were to underperform this winter. The FA will want to remain loyal, but if the country turns, they might well decide to act.

An alternative scenario is that England perform brilliantly on the World Cup stage, perhaps getting to another major final, maybe even actually lifting the trophy. If that happens, and with a place at the semi-finals of three successive tournaments on his CV, it is hardly fanciful to imagine that Southgate might decide to leave on a high. By the end of this month, the former Middlesbrough boss will have been England manager for more than six years. That is a lengthy tenure in any position, let alone one of the most high-pressurised roles in football.

So, if Southgate was to leave, where would the FA turn? At the start of this week, Potter was the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next England manager, but assuming he takes over at Chelsea, surely he wouldn’t be leaving Stamford Bridge within a couple of months of arriving? Pochettino is second favourite, then Howe.

I’d argue they’re the wrong way around and that Howe is a much more likely appointment for three reasons. First, he’s English, and after placing great stock in the way in which Southgate has created a ‘Team England’ environment at St George’s Park and successfully developed a strong bond between the various elements of the England set-up, the FA would love to be able to appoint another English boss to provide proof of their faith in the quality of English coaching. Unlike when Southgate was promoted to replace Sam Allardyce, there is no obvious candidate among the various age-group teams. Howe stands out amongst the English bosses currently managing in the Premier League.

In purely footballing terms, while Howe might not have achieved the same level of success as Pochettino, his work at both Bournemouth and Newcastle suggests a strong level of ability when it comes to improving players and developing a tactical approach that gets the best out of talented, but not necessarily world-class, footballers. Just as Southgate quickly worked out how to play to England’s strengths and attempt to hide their weaknesses, so Howe would be adaptable enough to maximise whatever was at his disposal.

Finally, and in the eyes of the FA, perhaps most importantly, Howe’s time in charge of Newcastle has confirmed his ability to operate within a controversial, and at times highly-charged, political climate. Do not underestimate the importance of that when it comes to selecting the next England boss.

Southgate hasn’t just been a manager during his time in charge of the national team, he has been a statesman, diplomat and political activist. Racism, players taking the knee, fans running riot in overseas cities – all have been potential flashpoints on his watch; all have been handled with sensitivity and conviction.

Howe has to perform a balancing act every time the issue of Saudi Arabian ownership is raised, and while some commentators might bemoan his refusal to say anything controversial, the Saudi elite in Riyadh will have been more than happy with his deft deflection of anything they did not want aired in public. The FA hierarchy will have noted that, and sensed a canny political operator. As a result, that will be a major tick next to Howe’s name.

Perhaps none of that will matter. Perhaps Southgate will remain in position after the World Cup and see out his contract in the next two years. If he doesn’t though, Newcastle have to be ready for what might happen. As Brighton know only too well, the footballing world does not stand still for long.