Cheltenham Festival: Scott Wilson's race-by-race guide

TUESDAY

The Festival begins with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30), and what was already looking like a vintage renewal gained even more appeal on Thursday night when Gordon Elliott revealed that his star novice, Envoi Allen, could be switched to the Supreme from the longer Ballymore.

That won’t become clear until final declarations are revealed on Sunday, but if Envoi Allen was to line up as a short-priced favourite in the Supreme, the fact he has always been regarded as more of a two-and-a-half miler means I would be keen to take him on.

The Nicky Henderson camp have long felt that SHISHKIN could be the next Altior, and if he’s anywhere close to that level, he’ll be able to serve it up to Envoi Allen. Admittedly, Shishkin has a fair bit to find on the bare form just to match the likes of Asterion Forlonge and Abacadabras, but the manner of his Huntington romp last time out left a deep impression. Another Henderson charge, Chantry House, could be the best of the each-way contenders.

The Racing Post Arkle (2.10) looks wide open, and I’d be against the favourite, Notebook. He’s looked good when winning in Ireland this winter, but he has a tendency to boil over and the unique demands of the Festival might well prove too much for him. Fakir D’Oudairies would be respected if running here instead of in Thursday’s Marsh Chase, but ready preference is for BREWIN’UPASTORM, who looks the best of a strong home contingent. At double-figure odds, the mare Maire Banrigh should hit the frame.

The Ultima Chase (2.50) is the first of the week’s handicaps, and as ever, it looks an extremely competitive affair. Previous Festival form tends to be worth its weight in gold, so my two against the field would be KILDISART, who was fourth in last season’s JLT and DISCORAMA, who was second in the National Hunt Chase 12 months’ ago. I’ll be taking on the favourite, Vinndication, because he’s always been better going right-handed.

The Champion Hurdle (3.30) is the feature race of the opening day, but on paper at least, this looks as bad a renewal as there has been for many a year. Assuming, as looks likely, Honeysuckle doesn’t run, I couldn’t have either of the Henderson horses at the head of the market. Epatante flopped badly in the mares’ novices race last season while Pentland Hills has faded badly in each of his two runs this year.

It looks a race that is ripe for an upset, so I’ll be taking a couple of each-way swings. SUPASUNDAE has proven Grade One form in the book and should be perfectly primed after a decent tune-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. BALLYANDY shouldn’t be good enough to win, but he’s guaranteed to run his race, and that be enough to land an each-way touch at odds of around 25-1.

If the Champion Hurdle is a shocker, then the Mares’ Hurdle (4.10) should be a cracking event if Benie Des Deux and Honeysuckle take up their expected engagements. It looks a two-horse race, and I’d definitely be in the BENIE DES DEUX camp given how well she looked on her seasonal return at Gowran Park. She can make amends after an untimely fall at the last 12 months’ ago.

The Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap (4.50) is a fiendishly difficult puzzle to solve given how closely-matched the runners are on ratings. Imperial Aura has been a warm favourite for a while now and is respected, but I’d be more interested in HOLD THE NOTE and ESPOIR DE GUYE, both of whom are currently available at double-figure odds.

Day one finishes with the National Hunt Chase (5.30), and many pundits regard Wille Mullins’ Carefully Selected as their opening-day banker. He’s the best horse in the race, but his jumping can often leave a lot to be desired and he’ll do well to win this is he’s scruffy over his obstacles. Jockey bookings can often be key given it’s an amateur riders’ race, so the fact that Sam Waley-Cohen will be on board LORD DU MESNIL earns him my vote.

WEDNESDAY

The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (1.30) opens proceedings on day two, and as is the case with Tuesday’s Supreme, the complexion of the race will change depending on whether ENVOI ALLEN is involved.

Last year’s Bumper winner has swept all before him and is seven from seven under rules, and while I’d be willing to take him on in the Supreme, I’d be much warier of backing against him in the Ballymore. The extra five furlongs should play to his strengths, and the Ballymore looks a weaker race. If Envoi Allen runs, he should win, but if he goes down the Supreme route, I’d be backing Colin Tizzard’s The Big Breakaway to claim the day two spoils.

Champ has been favourite for the RSA Chase (2.05) throughout the winter, but having somehow avoided disaster when winning at Newbury, he hit the turf in a crashing fall in his most recent outing at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He’s got some engine, but his jumping has to be a major worry.

The opposite is true of COPPERHEAD, who has sailed over his obstacles while storming through the handicap ranks. He’ll have to improve again as he steps into graded company, but he looks just the type to excel in a race like the RSA. He’s my idea of the winner, with another of Tizzard’s horses, Slate House, making each-way appeal.

The Coral Cup (2.50) tends to be something of a cavalry charge, and with a number of horses boasting multiple entries, it’s something of a pin-sticking job until the final declarations are confirmed. At this stage, I’d be sweet on two Willie Mullins-trained runners - CANARDIER, who looks to be well treated at the weights, and STRATUM, whose top-class Flat form gives him a class edge.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30) will be the race of the Festival provided the three main protagonists – Altior, Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi – all make it to the start line.

Altior has won the last three Champion Chases, and looked back to somewhere close to his best when he won at Newbury last time out. It would be madness to rule him out, but it’s debatable whether he’s beaten a truly top-class horse for a couple of years now and I’ll be taking him on.

Chacun Pour Soi trounced Defi Du Seuil at Punchestown last year, but he was a fresh horse while his rival had contested all the spring festivals. Chacun Pour Soi’s jumping capabilities have to be respected, but DEFI DU SEUIL has improved with every run this season and boasts a stack of winning Cheltenham form. In my mind, that just gives him the edge.

The Cross-Country Chase (4.10) is all about TIGER ROLL, now firmly established as one of the most popular horses in training. The presence of the talented Easysland means this is a better race than the one he won last year, but it would still be a major shock if he wasn’t able to defend his crown before heading back off to the Grand National.

The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50) is always a competitive affair, although the Irish have been backing the Gordon Elliott-trained Aramax off the boards in the last few weeks. He might well win, but his price has collapsed so I’d rather back the equally unexposed MICK PASTOR and PALLADIUM at three or four times the odds.

The second day ends with the Champion Bumper (5.30), and I’ve been a huge fan of APPRECIATE IT ever since he cruised to victory at Leopardstown over Christmas. There’s not much value in his price now, but I think he’ll win. At much longer odds, another Irish youngster, ESKYLANE, merits each-way support.

THURSDAY

The Marsh Novices’ Chase (1.30) kicks off day three at the Festival, and the roof will be lifted off Cheltenham’s cavernous grandstand if Champion Hurdler Faugheen claims novice chase honours at the grand old age of 12.

He’s already achieved Grade One honours this season when winning the Flogas Novices’ Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, but this looks a much stronger race and he might just find himself tapped for toe.

I’m going to stick with two from the home camp in ITCHY FEET, who has progressed markedly over fences after finishing third in last year’s Supreme, and MISTER FISHER, another decent novice hurdler who has improved significantly over the larger obstacles.

The Pertemps Hurdle (2.10) tends to go to a horse that has been plotted up for the race all season, and there a few that would fit that bill in this year’s field. THE STORYTELLER is a former Festival winner who looks to have been laid out for the race by Gordon Elliott, while RAPPER could be open to loads of improvement and should outrun his current odds of 33-1.

Bryony Frost’s Ryanair Chase (2.50) win on Frodon provided one of the highlights of last year’s Festival, and the pair are back to try to defend their title. If the forecast is correct, Frodon should get his preferred soft ground, but this looks a much stronger renewal.

Min will have his supporters, but while he was superb at Aintree last spring, he has flopped on more than occasion at Cheltenham. As a result, I’d rather be on A PLUS TARD, whose demolition job in last year’s Close Brothers Novices’ Chase marked him out as a special talent.

That description certainly applies to PAISLEY PARK, and Emma Lavelle’s stable star is deservedly odds-on to retain his Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30) crown. He’s swept all before him again this season, and looks impossible to oppose whatever the underfoot conditions.

Summerville Boy should chase him home, although at odds of around 33-1, I’ve long had a soft spot for Bacardys. He’s horribly inconsistent, but on a going day, he’d be more than capable of finishing in the first three.

The Brown and Merriebelle Stable Plate (4.10) tends to be one of the hardest handicap puzzles to solve, and at this stage, it’s hard to know exactly what’s going to run. Simply The Betts caught the eye when winning at Cheltenham last time out, but that might have ruined his handicap mark. I’d be interested in Gordon Elliott’s GALVIN or Nick Henderson’s CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM if either of them were to run here.

The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (4.50) has been something of a Willie Mullins benefit since it was added to the programme, but for once, it is another Irish trainer, Henry de Bromhead, who appears to hold the trump card in the shape of favourite MINELLA MELODY. If she runs to form, she’ll be hard to beat, although Mullins’ Hook Up looks just the kind of unexposed youngster he tends to do well with. She probably shouldn’t be 33-1.

The Thursday ends with the Kim Muir Chase (5.30) for amateur riders, and as is the case with the National Hunt Chase on day one, jockey bookings will be instructive. Last year’s National Hunt Chase winner, Le Breuil, will be popular if Jamie Codd is on board again, but I like the claims of Phillip Hobbs’ DEISE ABA at a double-figure price.

FRIDAY

The Triumph Hurdle (1.30) kicks off the final day of action, and this year’s race looks a cracker. Solo shot to the head of the market when he trounced a decent field in the Adonis, while Goshen’s obvious raw talent means he will have plenty of supporters despite question marks over his jumping.

However, I’ve been an ALLMANKIND fan all winter, so I won’t be deserting Dan Skelton’s powerful front-runner now. In a race that is bound to have plenty of pace, he could be hard to peg back.

The County Hurdle (2.10) is currently 10-1 the field, which says all you need to know about how difficult it is to come up with the winner. There are a host of horses that could run well, but Willie Mullins’ JANIDIL looks an ideal type, with another Irish raider, SOVIET PIMPERNEL, also making appeal at around 20-1.

The Albert Bartlett (2.50) is the longest of the novice hurdles and often be a gruelling affair, particularly if the ground is soft. Thyme Hill looks a worthy favourite, but it often pays to be battle-hardened, which should play into the hands of RAMSES DE TEILLEE.

The David Pipe-trained eight-year-old is hardly your average novice hurdler given that he has finished second in a Welsh Grand National, but his experience of negotiating marathon trips over fences should stand him in good stead.

This year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30) has long looked a strong renewal, and with most of the main contenders having stood their ground, there are more than half-a-dozen runners with decent claims.

Santini has jumped to the head of the market in the last few days, presumably because soft ground now looks pretty much guaranteed, and having finished second in last year’s RSA, he should be there or thereabouts.

Delta Work was third in last year’s RSA, but two battling wins in Ireland this winter might well have left their mark. Lostintranslation blotted his copybook in the King George, but should be capable of bouncing back, while Clan Des Obeaux’s Kempton run suggests he has improved since fading into fifth in last year’s Gold Cup.

It is notoriously hard to win back-to-back Gold Cups, but AL BOUM PHOTO looks capable of doing just that. He was a hugely impressive winner 12 months ago, and has been wrapped in cotton wool since to give him every chance of repeating his success. His jumped superbly as he blew away the cobwebs on his seasonal reappearance at Tramore in January, and looks the one to beat.

The Foxhunters’ Chase (4.10) has attracted an interesting field, with old favourites Minella Rocco and Don Poli trying their hand in a different sphere. It tends to pay to stick with a specialist though, and having landed the honours last year, HAZEL HILL looks primed for another strong showing.

The Grand Annual (4.50) is no longer the final race of the meeting, but it will be as tricky to solve as ever with a maximum field set to line up. Kim Bailey’s FIRST FLOW is a live contender despite being available at around 20-1, while SPIRITOFTHEGAMES could also go close at an even bigger price.

The Festival ends with the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle (5.30), and the Irish look to hold most of the trump cards. Gavin Cromwell’s ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN has been the talk of the Festival preview circuit and is a worthy joint-favourite.