With Stockton South a key marginal in the first winter election in almost 100 years, Local Democracy Reporter Alex Metcalfe looks at the estate which could sway the seat.

STOCKTON SOUTH sits on a knife edge – with Conservative Matt Vickers looking to topple incumbent Labour GP Dr Paul Williams. And one estate could well hold the balance of power.

Traditionally, Thornaby is seen as the Labour heartland of the constituency while the rural south of Yarm votes Tory.

Fairfield and Bishopgarth have changed hands in Stockton Council elections while Parkfield and Oxbridge are Labour strongholds.

Eaglescliffe and Hartburn tend to be where the Conservatives pick up votes as well as the south.

Then there is Ingleby Barwick – home to Lowfields, Beckfields, Broom Hill, Round Hill, Sober Hall and The Rings with a population of about 22,000 and rising.

The estate’s wards are relatively affluent  – predominantly home to families with children living in upmarket suburban, detached homes with three or four bedrooms.

Both east and west wards are ranked first and second least deprived in Stockton borough, according to council data from this year.

But both have higher numbers of people under 65 than the rest of the borough – with lower levels of youth unemployment than average.

It is also home to lots of public sector workers who have been on the front line of austerity impacts in the past decade.

House prices are above average and between 75 per cent and 80 per cent of people aged over 18 registered to vote.

In other words, it’s suburbia with plenty of votes up for grabs.

Few surprises

There are six seats on Stockton Council from Ingleby’s east and west wards. The west is a stronghold for Ingleby Barwick Independent Society (IBIS).

Community campaigner and independent Cllr Ted Strike and Conservative couple Sally Ann and Alan Watson hold the east ward.

The latter run the DIY shop on Sandgate Shops, off The Rings. What they think of the election doesn’t come as a shock.

Alan says: “There is no Thirteen housing (social housing) – Ingleby Barwick is a predominantly people who have moved out of Thornaby.

“Most of the Labour people say they won’t vote for the Conservatives but can’t bring themselves to vote for Corbyn.

“They are trying the Conservative Party – we get a boost from having Corbyn in office.”

Torn

Meanwhile, former teacher and shopper Sue Hodgson lets out a sigh when asked how she’ll vote.

“I’m confused,” she says. “They aren’t consistent in what they say. They back down and change their minds – that really annoys me.”

Sue says she’s normally a Conservative voter but is torn. She adds: “I would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn but I’m not a Labour voter.

“I cannot vote for the Lib Dems as my kids would never forgive me for what they did with student loans.

“I am a Conservative but I’m a bit worried – I’m worried about Boris (Johnson).

“If Theresa May was still there it might have swayed me.

“We need to save the planet so that’s one of the reasons why I might vote Green.”

Fiscal matters

Ingleby Barwick is a 20th century phenomenon. In 1969, Yarmside Holdings bought land for housing and in the late 1970s, the first houses were built at Lowfields.

The estate’s six villages grew since then but their developments were marked by little other infrastructure – leaving residents reliant on the car to go elsewhere for leisure or childcare.

When it comes to wider politics, Sober Hall’s Terry Simpson nails his blue colours to the mast while picking up a box of screws.

He adds: “Labour is so far left. They are talking about nationalising things but don’t have a logical explanation.

“People don’t understand the difference between the deficit and the national debt – there is all this talk of austerity but you have to pay your way.

“About 90 per cent of people have no idea about it. That’s the fundamental problem.”

The other side of the coin

Just 30 yards down the parade, I bump into charity volunteer James Hall, who is a staunch socialist and a fan of Jeremy Corbyn’s vision for Britain.

The 48-year-old says: “I feel the country needs a change but I think I’m in the minority in this area.

“It’s quite an affluent area.”

James believes Mr Corbyn has faced “disgraceful slurs” from the right-wing media and aims his fire on the Conservatives.

The Rings resident adds: “The Tories come out with Brexit – there are so many things on the table.

“To be honest I was thinking about retiring and moving abroad now that option isn’t as available as it once was.”

But away from folk with strident views are those either undecided, indifferent or just fed up with politics.

Mother-of-two Anna Kearney hasn’t decided where she’s putting her cross yet.

The 33-year-old has lived on The Rings for four years. “I haven’t thought about it,” she says.

“I would normally vote Conservative but I’m not sure."

The NHS and Brexit have been two of the big talking points in the UK’s first winter election since 1923.

Anna explains the health service’s future will play a big role in what gets her vote as the NHS has helped her fight against breast cancer.

Trust

Trust has been another central tenet of this election battle – with many torn over who to believe.

Around the corner, I speak to a Rings resident, who wishes to remain anonymous, unpacking a shopping delivery.

She says: “I don’t believe any of them – I think they’re all full of ****.

“They’re saying stuff now because it’s election time. I just want what’s right for my family – I’ve got a little one and another on the way.”

Non-voters

One often overlooked statistic in elections in the number of people who don’t vote.

In 2017, Dr Williams beat Conservative James Wharton by 888 votes.

But 21,801 people didn’t go to the polls that day – almost 30 per cent of the voting-age population.

Another knock finds an 18-year-old lad who doesn’t want his name in the paper.

He tells me he’s not going to vote next week – and neither are any of his mates.

“I’m just not interested,” he says.