There is always a spark of optimism in the air when September comes around in the country with the prospect of a new season's hunting beckoning.

Hunting people are always optimistic even though on this occasion it may be misplaced. Ever since the Labour government came into power in May 1997 there has been a question mark hanging over whether the threatened ban will finally succeed. This year more than ever the threat is very real. Peter Hain, the Leader of the House has made it very clear that he supports a ban. He is "sure that there is no question about the Prime Minister's views on the matter". For the Parliament Act to be used the banning Bill will need to be reintroduced to the Commons by early October at the latest.

Scotland has already passed through this scenario. Two years ago the Scottish parliament introduced the 'Protection of Wild Animals Scotland Act' effectively outlawing traditional hunting. It put in place a form of control using dogs to flush out foxes from covert with the intention that the fox would then be shot. Virtually all the Scottish hunts are operating within this law giving a fox control service to land owners and farmers.

Much has been made in the past of the effects on jobs should a ban be enforced. The anti hunts lobby plays down the importance of this aspect, indeed often refusing to acknowledge a problem would even exist. After all, they say, everyone can re-train to find alternative work. The Burns Committee stated clearly 'Some of those directly affected have specialized skills which would not transfer easily and they would find it hard to find alternative employment' (Para.3.73 Burns report). The Committee also expressed some doubts about the accuracy of the figures produced for the Inquiry which estimated that a maximum of 10,000 full-time job equivalents were dependent on hunting. A more recent review has been undertaken by three long standing professional independent organizations, namely the British Equestrian Trade Association, Produce Studies Group and Cobham Resource Consultants. This review established that these figures were too low. In fact there are up to 13,900 full time job equivalents and 36,000 jobs (including part time) dependent upon hunting. The majority of these exist within the horse industry.

Statistics are often viewed with scepticism but in this case proof of the figures is beginning to emerge now that the Scottish bill is two years down the line. The effect is being felt not only in Scotland but also in England and Wales where a marked drop in trade is being reported by various horse related businesses.

Gordon Pearson, a working saddler who is tied in with a big equestrian unit in South Lanarkshire, offers a manufacturing and repair service to the equestrian and hunting public. He noticed a lot of the hunt people are no longer here. "Half my customers have gone," he says, "I tried to compensate with show jumpers and eventers but my sales figures are well down. I am seriously considering going to the USA to work."

Ayrshire Equestrian Centre is a large equestrian development in a popular hunting area of South Ayrshire. It incorporates a riding school, livery yard, tack shop, riding holidays and horse transport business. It also has a large mobile tack unit which travels extensively in the British Isles and on the continent to all the major shows and competitions.

As a past rider and instructor, Kevin Galbraith, the proprietor, sees the situation from all angles. "No one has gained from this new law" he said, "it is being used purely as a pest control so the volume of supporters has reduced. Trade in the shop has dropped and the hunting liveries have gone. The horse transport part of the business is down too."

Traveling to all the major shows has given him a clear insight. "When you are down south it makes you realize how much it will affect the industry. It's bad enough in Scotland. It will be amplified in England."

Anticipation of a ban further south is already having an effect. A Gloucestershire retailer, Patrick Pinkers Saddlery, whose main contributor is hunting said, "the uncertainty is having an effect on trade. Customers are holding off before buying new saddles or rugs".

Farriers in particular are feeling it. Hugh Dyer from Bedale noticed that "People who normally have two hunters and a young one coming on are not getting the young one." For John Stanley from Northallerton there would be serious implications. John shoes for three hunts in the area and employs two apprentices. "A ban would be quite catastrophic" he said, "I wouldn't be able to afford to keep the apprentices and 80pc of my winter work would go. I would seriously consider moving abroad to work".

The sport has been seen in some quarters as a pursuit for the arrogant rich. To counter this plus all the other misinformation circulated by the anti-hunt lobby much has been done in the last ten years to lift the veil on what goes on.

Hunts have become very proactive advertising their sport. Open days are often held at the kennels; hounds are taken to town events, even to city centres, with hunt representatives only too willing to have dialogue with anyone who wishes to find out more about it. To encourage riders to experience hunting first hand special 'newcomer' days have been offered at much reduced rates. The message is clear "Come and see for yourselves, we have nothing to hide."

The cause of this whole matter is supposed to be one of animal welfare, which I seriously doubt that when listening to ranting about the 'high class toffs'. The sad fact is that a ban would bring more suffering to the fox than it ever faces by a pack of hounds. In South Ayrshire there are fewer foxes now since the restriction. The new legislation is seen by some as a license to shoot, so despite close supervision by hunts the numbers of foxes in some areas are dwindling.

Should this happen to the whole country we could be left with a fox population prospering in the suburbs of London and Leeds but extinct in the rural areas, leaving the rabbits full rein to breed, which in turn could lead to major gassing. In short a major upset in the balance of nature. Exaggerated out of all proportion, you might say, but at present Britain has the healthiest population of foxes in Europe. Do animal lovers really want to jeopardize that?

Country people are usually reserved, quiet and law abiding. They don't make a fuss, just buckle down and get on with things. The threat to what many regard as a way of life has whipped up such a frenzy of feeling that should the bill become law, there is a serious threat of anarchy.

The Burns enquiry found no justification for a ban which the Government chooses to ignore. Similarly the issue of large scale job losses has been swept under the carpet, unlike other industries. What about the fox? Well he will think he's laughing all the way to the hen house. Unfortunately he can't see the guns meeting him on the way out.

It's not too late to do something about it.

* More newcomers' days will be held this year between 9 and 16th October. Get the details from your local hunt.

Published: 01/10/200404